Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb94ef53e428c59fb8cc552550f03a7b4f40fce513a3ed8bf43c8427dc280078d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1796…c490backed Yes | 70c | 490.86$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.33 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 231.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 10c | 173.78$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.07 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 63c | 159.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 36c | 157.63$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 18c | 151.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.91 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 148.8$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 50c | 147.58$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.25 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed Yes | 67c | 137.76$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.47 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 50c | 132.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.95 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf34…063ebacked Yes | 38c | 130.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…e15bbacked Yes | 14c | 125.09$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.43 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 74c | 120$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.7 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 9c | 110.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 60c | 105.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe217…5c75backed Yes | 39c | 103.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 160 | 30%48 W · 112 L | -15.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 50c | 103.06$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.08 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 102.65$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.83 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed No | 27c | 91.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed Yes | 48c | 87.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 30c | 87.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 19c | 87.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.44 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 64c | 84.6$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.82 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 30c | 82.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x592e…2030backed Yes | 56c | 71.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 23c | 71.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 41c | 69.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.32 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea6a…3ee2backed Yes | 51c | 68.25$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.66 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 62c | 65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 17c | 60.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 59c | 50.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.65 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 37c | 49.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa907…ba96backed Yes | 52c | 49.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 109 | 55%60 W · 49 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…e309backed Yes | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf78…c915backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 38cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 62c | 39.06$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.12 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcf04…749ebacked No | 46c | 36.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2b…4e2fbacked Yes | 47c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 61c | 34.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 45c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x236b…9b00backed Yes | 64c | 31.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 202 | 66.8%135 W · 67 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.49 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f98…e397backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 331 | 54.4%180 W · 151 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 45c | 28.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac70…1bd5backed Yes | 60c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked No | 40c | 26.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 74c | 25.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36d…0a31backed Yes | 64c | 25.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 51c | 22.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x923f…6c4abacked Yes | 73c | 20.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2810…d40fbacked Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e6…0ae1backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8917…be6fbacked No | 63c | 15.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 74cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 3°C on April 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 1°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 2°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 4°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 5°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 6°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 7°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 9°C or higher on April 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.