Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group C
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb955993754735703530069c4b0cc7f38a1447174ba0efe85ee84b678cec4b055
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, MOUZ
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,079
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,079 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c8f…4d12backed MOUZ | 30c | 3,065$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$929.97 | 350 | 62.6%219 W · 131 L | +44.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ | 18c | 2,505$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.2 | 1,823 | 45.1%822 W · 1,001 L | +34.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7951…bb41backed MOUZ | 22c | 2,349$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.89 | 647 | 44.4%287 W · 360 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ | 19c | 2,287$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.21 | 1,525 | 38%579 W · 946 L | -56.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed MOUZ | 20c | 1,946$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.09 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked MOUZ | 22c | 1,881$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.5 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed MOUZ | 17c | 1,489$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.9 | 417 | 55.6%232 W · 185 L | +42.0wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe16d…5e30backed PARIVISION | 75c | 1,338$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.19 | 1,210 | 57.1%691 W · 519 L | +44.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd9…de31backed PARIVISION | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.82 | 143 | 58%83 W · 60 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed MOUZ | 23c | 1,106$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.25 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5006…48cabacked MOUZ | 25c | 999.99$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c9…aec3backed MOUZ | 10c | 813.52$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.35 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe39c…71c4backed PARIVISION | 78c | 812.82$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.82 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed PARIVISION | 77c | 806$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.56 | 176 | 48.3%85 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked PARIVISION | 77c | 803.22$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.71 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ | 24c | 779.99$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.44 | 2,835 | 43.6%1,237 W · 1,598 L | -39.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked PARIVISION | 51c | 500$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed MOUZ | 26c | 499.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 809 | 42.6%345 W · 464 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…ee29backed PARIVISION | 80c | 498.61$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.72 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked MOUZ | 20c | 394.35$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 1,482 | 48.9%724 W · 758 L | +32.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked MOUZ | 24c | 356.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 1,723 | 41.3%711 W · 1,012 L | -43.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…1ffcbacked PARIVISION | 49c | 340$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.6 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cc…893cbacked MOUZ | 17c | 313.67$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 244 | 43.4%106 W · 138 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked PARIVISION | 77c | 250$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 547 | 59.6%326 W · 221 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7de3…d59bbacked MOUZ | 22c | 249.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.99 | 117 | 33.3%39 W · 78 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked MOUZ | 10c | 244.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed PARIVISION | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed PARIVISION | 75c | 197.01$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 303 | 57.1%173 W · 130 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…19e2backed PARIVISION | 48c | 176.66$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.86 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0785…3540backed PARIVISION | 51c | 130.29$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.84 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +10.3wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed PARIVISION | 49c | 130$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked PARIVISION | 70c | 127.27$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 243 | 34.6%84 W · 159 L | -17.0wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9b…12eabacked MOUZ | 27c | 126.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x174e…8b63backed PARIVISION | 79c | 125$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked MOUZ | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9755…ab85backed MOUZ | 23c | 104.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…8e7ebacked PARIVISION | 48c | 103.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 342 | 54.4%186 W · 156 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x469a…b342backed PARIVISION | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x293c…dcbabacked PARIVISION | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.29per pick | 57cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xce8a…189fbacked PARIVISION | 77c | 77.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 43 | 79.1%34 W · 9 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…052abacked MOUZ | 25c | 66.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed MOUZ | 28c | 65.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 538 | 51.3%276 W · 262 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd2…87f4backed PARIVISION | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +13.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…c9f4backed PARIVISION | 79c | 53$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 155 | 67.7%105 W · 50 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…ff94backed PARIVISION | 76c | 50.63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 293 | 52.9%155 W · 138 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed MOUZ | 23c | 50.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 250 | 47.6%119 W · 131 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed PARIVISION | 69c | 49.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 196 | 60.2%118 W · 78 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked PARIVISION | 62c | 47.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad6…c1c4backed MOUZ | 26c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 93 | 26.9%25 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked PARIVISION | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed MOUZ | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 972 | 42.8%416 W · 556 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2405…e055backed PARIVISION | 72c | 36.55$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 94 | 40.4%38 W · 56 L | -7.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked PARIVISION | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 106 | 43.4%46 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce3…599dbacked PARIVISION | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 68cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked PARIVISION | 73c | 26.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a62…5247backed PARIVISION | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfce8…2686backed PARIVISION | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 145 | 66.2%96 W · 49 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked PARIVISION | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 130 | 33.1%43 W · 87 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd6…81f6backed PARIVISION | 79c | 24.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b97…8d30backed PARIVISION | 72c | 22.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 362 | 48.6%176 W · 186 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5c…aa54backed PARIVISION | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 42 | 71.4%30 W · 12 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…189abacked PARIVISION | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x061a…5a89backed PARIVISION | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb66c…a0f5backed PARIVISION | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 222 | 60.4%134 W · 88 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260a…eb0fbacked PARIVISION | 75c | 15.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 153 | 68%104 W · 49 L | +17.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…5316backed PARIVISION | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ (BO2) - Esports World Cup Group Cthis page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.