TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, MOUZ
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$396,340
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$447,087

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $396,340 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 269 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed MOUZ19c46,337$8,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,711.3271143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86e9…4cdfbacked PARIVISION72c31,129$22,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,652.1617948.6%87 W · 92 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed MOUZ21c22,552$4,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,845.451049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked MOUZ20c18,416$3,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,712.5189741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked PARIVISION79c17,061$13,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,499.771,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3413…8ff2backed MOUZ33c10,000$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30047646.4%221 W · 255 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+12.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe548…a9febacked MOUZ22c10,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.997236.1%26 W · 46 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-19.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked PARIVISION78c9,750$7,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,14580256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed PARIVISION78c8,449$6,607 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,842.4796557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked MOUZ23c8,348$1,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,914.7648053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf60…a6f5backed PARIVISION79c8,000$6,292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,708.411953.8%64 W · 55 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed MOUZ20c7,689$1,538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,538.1545139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed MOUZ21c7,633$1,609 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,609.3369644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked MOUZ22c7,475$1,644 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,644.528159.8%168 W · 113 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked MOUZ14c6,060$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$874.221,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed PARIVISION72c5,397$3,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,484.8748954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd66…664fbacked PARIVISION76c5,000$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20013960.4%84 W · 55 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked MOUZ20c5,000$1,021 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,020.8377458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed PARIVISION74c4,319$3,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,118.881,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4620…ea85backed MOUZ14c4,103$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.793935.9%14 W · 25 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2deb…2b13backed PARIVISION71c3,989$2,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,157.4511551.3%59 W · 56 L+0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed PARIVISION80c3,500$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70079959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed MOUZ24c3,500$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.3353764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked MOUZ22c3,477$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.3231936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9679…9315backed MOUZ19c3,302$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$627.4516058.8%94 W · 66 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed MOUZ18c3,293$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$590.4491553.3%488 W · 427 L+48.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked MOUZ21c3,080$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.851,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fb2…5c04backed MOUZ1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30712.8%2 W · 69 L+0.2wins0.00per pick3cpaid-90.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked PARIVISION79c3,000$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.9936547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed MOUZ24c2,989$715 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.831,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2391…554fbacked MOUZ36c2,794$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00012141.3%50 W · 71 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed MOUZ5c2,667$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.9540014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cb4…00eabacked PARIVISION77c2,616$2,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.645964.4%38 W · 21 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked PARIVISION79c2,597$2,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.9461456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e01…b0b5backed PARIVISION79c2,535$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.9920642.7%88 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed MOUZ25c2,274$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.1881029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f4…7e44backed PARIVISION75c2,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50056852.5%298 W · 270 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048f…9992backed MOUZ1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202110.5%1 W · 210 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-99.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0f0…26edbacked PARIVISION80c1,963$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.0133867.8%229 W · 109 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ebe…5e6fbacked MOUZ17c1,945$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.8125752.1%134 W · 123 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed MOUZ20c1,921$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.612,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked MOUZ30c1,902$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.2950850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fac…b89abacked PARIVISION79c1,834$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.3722450%112 W · 112 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed MOUZ27c1,755$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$476.2834442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked PARIVISION75c1,750$1,313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.554058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed PARIVISION72c1,750$1,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48551544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x06a6…03abbacked PARIVISION75c1,721$1,291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.936555.4%36 W · 29 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebb9…1d15backed MOUZ18c1,671$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3009535.8%34 W · 61 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked MOUZ23c1,655$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.761,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1943…1561backed MOUZ21c1,644$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.3945352.1%236 W · 217 L+13.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed PARIVISION77c1,500$1,160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34051364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcd65…5726backed PARIVISION79c1,462$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.1211753%62 W · 55 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked MOUZ19c1,413$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.4925246.8%118 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed PARIVISION73c1,394$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.3718356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd0…cdd6backed MOUZ26c1,366$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35010651.9%55 W · 51 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x533e…47f4backed PARIVISION78c1,282$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.0511359.3%67 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed MOUZ19c1,255$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.7865625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6fa5…05bbbacked PARIVISION79c1,251$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256.6213359.4%79 W · 54 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a53…dfefbacked PARIVISION80c1,250$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2506149.2%30 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05a7…42e6backed MOUZ20c1,218$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.4741056.8%233 W · 177 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed MOUZ27c1,215$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.1468649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed PARIVISION76c1,180$902 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.0534860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x450e…4fddbacked PARIVISION79c1,156$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.6411758.1%68 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed PARIVISION71c1,121$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.1511154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked PARIVISION80c1,070$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.9139343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc714…d152backed PARIVISION79c1,052$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.9821158.3%123 W · 88 L+8.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked MOUZ25c1,039$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.743330.3%10 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5d5a…4289backed PARIVISION75c1,031$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.6730357.1%173 W · 130 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f31…a362backed MOUZ33c1,004$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.216558.2%96 W · 69 L-0.2wins0.00per pick58cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6cf…d3f0backed PARIVISION80c1,000$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20017449.4%86 W · 88 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd953…a9c0backed PARIVISION79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2108958.4%52 W · 37 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e9…5ef8backed PARIVISION76c999.99$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23518143.6%79 W · 102 L+7.1wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed PARIVISION78c999.98$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22027153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed PARIVISION76c995$760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.971,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked MOUZ23c982.8$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.4343049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked MOUZ16c956.75$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.271,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed MOUZ19c941$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.7969132.6%225 W · 466 L-26.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked MOUZ32c939.22$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30055251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5733…4c87backed MOUZ16c905.69$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.624030%12 W · 28 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-33.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed PARIVISION74c860.46$637 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.1829243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc27f…2a25backed PARIVISION78c836.99$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.61457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.7wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+26.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa113…bb53backed MOUZ26c830$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.85244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked MOUZ21c807.61$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.961,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32c3…5b4ebacked MOUZ22c805.99$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.321735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-21.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a8e…9408backed MOUZ23c754.55$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17396245.5%438 W · 524 L+22.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff7…bf32backed PARIVISION79c744.51$586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.2425359.3%150 W · 103 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x25cb…58afbacked MOUZ26c733.71$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.243066.7%20 W · 10 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xefdd…1e8abacked MOUZ16c720$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.1915050%75 W · 75 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked PARIVISION75c703.87$529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.153844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab12…764ebacked PARIVISION80c700$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14027060%162 W · 108 L-11.3wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed PARIVISION72c698.51$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.5148057.1%274 W · 206 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa20d…6ba4backed MOUZ34c645$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22014751%75 W · 72 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc51f…5dc6backed PARIVISION78c641.41$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.4114557.9%84 W · 61 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed PARIVISION79c641.03$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.6293546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e28…2ef4backed MOUZ16c625$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007533.3%25 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick33cpaid-23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x653e…bbc0backed MOUZ27c621.3$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7510136.6%37 W · 64 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-19.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed MOUZ21c606.01$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6545750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed PARIVISION79c576$455 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.9617757.6%102 W · 75 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked MOUZ2c569.36$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3937811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked PARIVISION78c561.42$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.758152.5%305 W · 276 L-10.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.