Mls · resolved market
Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb963adb84923be8622c379abdac633ae813d0379bfd0b0c4c9598f5e026bf5c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed Over | 41c | 7,777$3,189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,588.41 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 59c | 5,484$3,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,223.12 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 56c | 2,175$1,210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,209.98 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…d7a0backed Over | 44c | 1,940$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.12 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac86…b3b3backed Over | 78c | 1,289$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 66cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Under | 59c | 1,258$742 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$742 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Under | 59c | 1,248$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.32 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.25per pick | 47cpaid | +156.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 34c | 1,015$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.85 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 1,003$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432.55 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 43c | 704.89$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.35 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 39c | 628.26$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.59 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 28c | 429.94$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.02 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d3c…3293backed Under | 59c | 367.12$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 65c | 281.31$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.46 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 45c | 230.98$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.04 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 55c | 196.89$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.74 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x140d…a937backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Over | 47c | 188$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.64 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 47cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 64c | 178.13$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.73 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3454…333bbacked Over | 42c | 153.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.78 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Over | 70c | 153.34$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.92 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa2…b8e3backed Under | 40c | 104.58$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 58c | 93.21$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.15 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d91…df18backed Over | 43c | 89.33$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbec3…760ebacked Over | 51c | 79.99$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 55c | 79.8$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 42c | 71.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.22 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 52c | 66$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 41c | 63.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 57c | 56.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.07 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99fc…9e5fbacked Over | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 42c | 44$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2246…e958backed Under | 49c | 42.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0644…05debacked Over | 70c | 41.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…2269backed Under | 59c | 40.72$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Over | 39c | 37.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +155.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf9…1646backed Over | 78c | 36.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 69c | 31.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd040…4e6bbacked Under | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14b5…3607backed Under | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…5446backed Under | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Under | 55c | 21.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 55c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)Philadelphia Union won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.