Mls · resolved market
Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf4e3779bc5da76c4dbcc8a281e742b69556851b3e186c9a7eaf69b10c6a95a7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $408,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $481,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $408,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x542d…63aebacked Under | 0c | 280,158$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3333…15bdbacked Over | 46c | 39,951$18,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,579.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 54c | 38,424$20,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,749.14 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 58c | 1,855$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.07 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…142abacked Over | 44c | 1,305$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$735.89 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 69c | 1,303$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…822cbacked Under | 55c | 1,238$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…e75fbacked Under | 1c | 1,164$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f64…452abacked Over | 60c | 1,016$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 44c | 1,001$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$558.1 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 41c | 884.5$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.18 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +7.5wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 54c | 854.6$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.57 | 461 | 56.2%259 W · 202 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 22c | 819$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.82 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 78c | 794.71$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618.28 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x916f…53babacked Under | 52c | 708$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.16 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…664abacked Over | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 40c | 481.11$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.11 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 37c | 361.56$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.57 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Over | 49c | 316.33$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.33 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 153 | 41.2%63 W · 90 L | -14.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 64c | 267.55$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.23 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed Under | 69c | 227.86$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 45c | 222.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.66 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df4…4eacbacked Under | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…f3c4backed Over | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a32…9875backed Under | 14c | 134.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 45c | 102.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…c36fbacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…5f1dbacked Over | 53c | 98.61$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 27c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabbf…0758backed Over | 45c | 85.77$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 32c | 79.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.04 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 45c | 75.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.26 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 34c | 63.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.16 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7368…a8bebacked Over | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 58c | 61.19$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.49 | 106 | 48.1%51 W · 55 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…722bbacked Over | 35c | 56.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed Over | 80c | 56.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 51c | 53.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 251 | 49%123 W · 128 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…e204backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 28c | 51.96$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…bc23backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 38c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 53c | 50.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…aea9backed Under | 54c | 46.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Under | 62c | 40.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…a4f0backed Under | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…77dfbacked Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 45c | 35.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2f31…e2b6backed Over | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6579…4a91backed Over | 49c | 28.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eca…8602backed Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 23.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 46c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…f5ecbacked Under | 58c | 21.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -7.7wins | -0.26per pick | 57cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC: O/U 2.5this page
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Philadelphia Union vs. New York City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: New York City FC (-2.5)Philadelphia Union won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.