Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb96a330663b76a41140634d95530685914385b32ac70c80ab1333852bf89a99b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,854
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,854 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 955.39$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.14 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 35c | 525.28$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.99 | 286 | 37.4%107 W · 179 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9447…48d6backed Yes | 8c | 305.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 14%12 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 11c | 220$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 605 | 33.4%202 W · 403 L | +23.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 78c | 211.68$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 62c | 210$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.1 | 4,377 | 53.8%2,357 W · 2,020 L | -17.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked Yes | 23c | 176.84$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 76c | 171.6$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 1,804 | 55.9%1,009 W · 795 L | -33.0wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 169$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.09 | 9,987 | 44.8%4,471 W · 5,516 L | +258.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 455 | 30.1%137 W · 318 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 96.54$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 4,435 | 65.2%2,891 W · 1,544 L | +18.7wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 2,743 | 29.7%816 W · 1,927 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 76c | 93.84$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 3,782 | 65.8%2,489 W · 1,293 L | +32.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 77c | 89.61$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 13c | 78.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 624 | 22.4%140 W · 484 L | -29.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 24c | 75.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 52.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 6,111 | 49.3%3,012 W · 3,099 L | -116.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 72c | 50.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 2,211 | 55.9%1,236 W · 975 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 4,616 | 58.3%2,689 W · 1,927 L | -114.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1,279 | 53.9%690 W · 589 L | -27.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 44.61$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 77c | 40.72$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 331 | 68%225 W · 106 L | +16.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1,433 | 57.4%822 W · 611 L | +45.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed No | 78c | 36.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 79c | 29.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 2,273 | 59.3%1,347 W · 926 L | +118.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd68d…fe1dbacked No | 74c | 28.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 5,161 | 68.3%3,525 W · 1,636 L | +71.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbf…a7bebacked No | 75c | 24.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 69cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 916 | 62.3%571 W · 345 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6d…9128backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 5,201 | 49.9%2,595 W · 2,606 L | -161.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 75c | 19.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 411 | 12.4%51 W · 360 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 74c | 14.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1,021 | 51.1%522 W · 499 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 33°C on August 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 30°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 31°C on August 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 32°C on August 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.