NFL · resolved market
Will Elon Musk attend Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb987053c70d73ffb0124191d750a291b3351e0f285d6d234be3ab3b394998260
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,231
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,361
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,231 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 62c | 1,036$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.19 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948e…92b5backed Yes | 49c | 967.99$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 800$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.2 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe489…8429backed No | 27c | 564.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.94 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4132…a5a5backed Yes | 20c | 536$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.2 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe17…dd5cbacked No | 46c | 500$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.65 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 54c | 455$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.7 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a61…2c6bbacked No | 20c | 410.99$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 10cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 263 | 31.6%83 W · 180 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 16c | 360$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.8 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 65c | 335.07$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.06 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +9.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…aa0bbacked No | 33c | 334.21$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +203.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 32c | 187.1$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4de…7845backed Yes | 67c | 186.36$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 43c | 151.09$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.74 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked Yes | 52c | 119.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.84 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked Yes | 78c | 115$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…ddaebacked Yes | 27c | 111.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked No | 40c | 107$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x144f…12c3backed Yes | 10c | 102.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 12c | 102.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…0a51backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.25 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 18 | 94.4%17 W · 1 L | +6.2wins | +0.35per pick | 60cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd743…3ef2backed No | 43c | 91.58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6d…0bcebacked No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 60c | 87$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…9299backed Yes | 47c | 85.11$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…513ebacked Yes | 46c | 77.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a26…5284backed Yes | 69c | 72.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb208…d68dbacked No | 43c | 72.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +88%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 16c | 71.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.06 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 58c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.37 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…30a1backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe724…5ad6backed No | 44c | 56.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +1,429.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27c1…5d9dbacked No | 54c | 55.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked No | 24c | 52.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.06 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed Yes | 58c | 52.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 254 | 53.9%137 W · 117 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 173 | 59%102 W · 71 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f0…31a1backed Yes | 62c | 45.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…1081backed No | 49c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1255…d4c4backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2b…525abacked No | 63c | 30.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0407…7816backed Yes | 70c | 28.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 75c | 27.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…aee5backed No | 54c | 20.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd720…9be9backed Yes | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk attend Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will Barack Obama attend Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Danny DeVito attend Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will JD Vance attend Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Jason Kelce attend Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Joe Biden attend Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will John Fetterman attend Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Taylor Swift attend Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.