NFL · resolved market
Will JD Vance attend Super Bowl LIX?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc407143b2d27c9aae1aba8833fb606279c6da4978a84d1a969dffb4eca12f03c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,231
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed No | 77c | 5,222$4,034 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.9 | 52 | 76.9%40 W · 12 L | +8.7wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 79c | 1,916$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.05 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 22c | 1,620$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.37 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Yes | 20c | 1,476$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.47 | 103 | 33%34 W · 69 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,455$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 263 | 31.6%83 W · 180 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 15c | 704.4$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.22 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5d…5598backed Yes | 30c | 669.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Yes | 21c | 567$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.03 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd4…30a1backed Yes | 29c | 432.35$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd897…a582backed Yes | 8c | 336.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 13cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd249…6a1dbacked Yes | 30c | 333.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…a820backed Yes | 17c | 298.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 9c | 294.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f73…ced3backed No | 78c | 249.06$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.33 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc122…731fbacked Yes | 19c | 247.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e16…84d7backed Yes | 19c | 210.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 19c | 200$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 268 | 30.6%82 W · 186 L | -29.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…f90dbacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 20c | 194.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.7 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 20c | 194.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 31 | 12.9%4 W · 27 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78fa…103abacked Yes | 33c | 186.77$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe17…98e9backed No | 60c | 162.57$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.6 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 75c | 131.97$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 56c | 125$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +9.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…ddaebacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 314 | 39.8%125 W · 189 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 20c | 90$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 323 | 47.4%153 W · 170 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 19c | 59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98b4…5d76backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 254 | 53.9%137 W · 117 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…6802backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79f3…d803backed Yes | 21c | 48.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x144f…12c3backed Yes | 42c | 31.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 65c | 28.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6391…bc1cbacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f53…1081backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2998…b425backed No | 70c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will JD Vance attend Super Bowl LIX?this page
- Will Barack Obama attend Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Danny DeVito attend Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Elon Musk attend Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Jason Kelce attend Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
- Will Joe Biden attend Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will John Fetterman attend Super Bowl LIX?No won
- Will Taylor Swift attend Super Bowl LIX?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.