College Football · resolved market
Air Force vs. Navy
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb98cabc80f5c2381b01e5b17d18b8f690fdd3ab091831e341344e1365dd93eb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Navyof Air Force, Navy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Navy | 72c | 10,630$7,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,973.99 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Air Force | 9c | 5,098$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.24 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Air Force | 19c | 4,376$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.44 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Air Force | 35c | 3,995$1,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,387.53 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Air Force | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Air Force | 18c | 1,404$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.68 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Air Force | 23c | 1,023$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.18 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Air Force | 31c | 983.36$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.82 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Air Force | 18c | 890$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.2 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Air Force | 1c | 820$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…2be0backed Air Force | 28c | 819.64$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.5 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Air Force | 39c | 805.03$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.51 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Air Force | 26c | 786.06$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.68 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Air Force | 18c | 705.14$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.93 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Navy | 65c | 700$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8926…5aacbacked Navy | 80c | 700$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…a48ebacked Air Force | 18c | 666.67$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Air Force | 23c | 400$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Air Force | 9c | 392$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.28 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Air Force | 23c | 380.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.78 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Air Force | 18c | 307$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.28 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Air Force | 28c | 282.31$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Air Force | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddfe…c5a6backed Air Force | 31c | 244.26$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Navy | 70c | 225.31$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.59 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Air Force | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked Navy | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Air Force | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Air Force | 19c | 178.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Air Force | 21c | 142.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Air Force | 17c | 118.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a6…6991backed Air Force | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Air Force | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +136.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Air Force | 21c | 111$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -12.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Air Force | 16c | 108$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Air Force | 25c | 92.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.61 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x893c…b437backed Navy | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed Air Force | 25c | 81.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +5.9wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…329ebacked Navy | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Air Force | 27c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df6…4992backed Air Force | 40c | 57.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -5.7wins | -0.38per pick | 51cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2272…2e9cbacked Air Force | 19c | 56.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa06f…90a6backed Navy | 77c | 49.92$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…f5ddbacked Navy | 74c | 41.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…d466backed Navy | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Navy | 76c | 18.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.9wins | -0.26per pick | 66cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23bf…5592backed Navy | 77c | 13.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a1…f335backed Navy | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed26…f22bbacked Navy | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Air Force vs. Navythis page
- Air Force vs. Navy: O/U 51.5Over won
- Spread: Navy (-11.5)Air Force won
- Spread: Navy (-12.5)Air Force won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.