College Football · resolved market
Indiana vs. Penn State: O/U 50.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9b00f259bdc9204dcde1d95e7779e9eaf1258352cf4dbf761f127d8da737e3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,249
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,193
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,249 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 20,113$10,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,880.17 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Under | 49c | 15,000$7,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,350 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 8,402$4,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,171.58 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 50c | 6,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 290 | 55.2%160 W · 130 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Under | 49c | 4,793$2,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,325.1 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 49c | 2,350$1,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,153.68 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e9…dee1backed Under | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 50c | 1,159$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.18 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 52c | 1,150$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.97 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 50c | 1,020$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaabc…a190backed Under | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 50c | 400$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Over | 53c | 330.19$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.19 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 50c | 213$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…b567backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43de…d169backed Under | 53c | 92.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 46c | 88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.48 | 142 | 54.9%78 W · 64 L | +12.3wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9d…b033backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7a…7aa0backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Indiana vs. Penn State: O/U 50.5this page
- Indiana vs. Penn StateIndiana won
- Indiana vs. Penn State: O/U 48.5Over won
- O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Indiana (-14.5)Penn State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.