College Football · resolved market
Spread: Indiana (-14.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe81296000a06b4ddf872c8916a1408e14cea645abfa74bbbf312b9a8ee10edac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penn Stateof Indiana, Penn State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $166,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Indiana | 48c | 62,108$30,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,039.17 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Penn State | 53c | 39,388$20,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,453.65 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Penn State | 53c | 33,855$17,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,014.08 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Penn State | 55c | 25,000$13,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,250 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Penn State | 52c | 24,000$12,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,519.99 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Indiana | 47c | 16,930$7,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,879.73 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Indiana | 46c | 10,543$4,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,813.8 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Indiana | 45c | 9,775$4,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,400 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Indiana | 48c | 9,458$4,540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,539.87 | 327 | 45.6%149 W · 178 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Penn State | 55c | 6,364$3,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,863.64 | 54 | 46.3%25 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Indiana | 45c | 6,000$2,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,690 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Indiana | 46c | 5,500$2,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,555 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Indiana | 45c | 5,399$2,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,418.01 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Penn State | 51c | 5,054$2,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,476.55 | 176 | 55.1%97 W · 79 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3916…2e33backed Penn State | 54c | 5,000$2,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Penn State | 37c | 4,710$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,950.32 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64cc…ad9dbacked Indiana | 56c | 4,063$2,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,256.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21d8…ad91backed Indiana | 45c | 4,000$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Indiana | 48c | 2,365$1,134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.11 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Indiana | 47c | 2,000$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.58 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Penn State | 49c | 1,819$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.71 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Indiana | 47c | 1,757$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$823.78 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73c…3b19backed Indiana | 48c | 1,141$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$547.7 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 49cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Indiana | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 148 | 36.5%54 W · 94 L | -11.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…d913backed Indiana | 47c | 1,020$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Indiana | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Indiana | 47c | 912.28$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.77 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Indiana | 48c | 867.32$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.9 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Penn State | 4c | 827$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$791.4 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Penn State | 54c | 666.67$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.67 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x929d…e5cfbacked Indiana | 48c | 625$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Indiana | 48c | 466.97$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.08 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Penn State | 54c | 462.96$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.96 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…ee3dbacked Penn State | 53c | 380$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7de0…7c66backed Penn State | 54c | 372.61$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.61 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Penn State | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Indiana | 48c | 352.26$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.97 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Penn State | 50c | 321.23$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.45 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d8…5e19backed Penn State | 53c | 320$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…8bcebacked Penn State | 53c | 320$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Indiana | 46c | 300$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Indiana | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71b1…ac2cbacked Indiana | 33c | 196$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.24 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ee…5800backed Penn State | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258e…d16cbacked Penn State | 53c | 140.25$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 174 | 50%87 W · 87 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521f…6143backed Indiana | 58c | 133.48$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Indiana | 52c | 130$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Indiana | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Penn State | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Indiana | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Indiana | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…b610backed Indiana | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc47d…feeebacked Penn State | 57c | 88.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x561d…94bebacked Indiana | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd805…0d78backed Indiana | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.7wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x96bf…ba22backed Penn State | 59c | 77.22$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Penn State | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.21per pick | 48cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Penn State | 48c | 61.07$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.75 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b08…dd56backed Indiana | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Indiana | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…d55abacked Indiana | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Indiana | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b47…5286backed Indiana | 49c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71bd…6fcbbacked Indiana | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6079…81c6backed Indiana | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9492…1f25backed Penn State | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Penn State | 55c | 38.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 69 | 59.4%41 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67e3…e5b3backed Penn State | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Indiana | 44c | 29.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 542 | 43.2%234 W · 308 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Indiana | 49c | 28.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 268 | 46.3%124 W · 144 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Indiana | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd47b…c715backed Penn State | 55c | 21.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c1…416abacked Penn State | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe834…6407backed Penn State | 52c | 19.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana (-14.5)this page
- Indiana vs. Penn StateIndiana won
- Indiana vs. Penn State: O/U 48.5Over won
- Indiana vs. Penn State: O/U 50.5Over won
- O/U 49.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.