La Liga · resolved market
Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9d12745f12a0f9608a8d9306d15732ab8d07a4bbe2f693c28f07cd6126145bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,400 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 10c | 1,414$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.74 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 7c | 1,315$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.27 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 21c | 1,250$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.5 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 5c | 782.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 7c | 332.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9444…4618backed Over | 16c | 267.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa9…9145backed Over | 16c | 267.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccd…8cf0backed Over | 16c | 267.85$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…bbf0backed Over | 12c | 215.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +27%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…8293backed Under | 79c | 146.19$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 13c | 77$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b06…d0cabacked Over | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa658…f93ebacked Under | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -4.1wins | -0.25per pick | 69cpaid | -39%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)Real Betis Balompié won
- Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.