La Liga · resolved market
Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f1dd550defeaa10c22c24ac3049f7399085ca1735b98f0f1c97fe6e04cfe493
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,403
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,403 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 2,529$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.87 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 2,243$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.97 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Over | 25c | 1,250$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.94 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 28c | 721.53$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.04 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3497…812bbacked Under | 74c | 675.24$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 74c | 540.67$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.67 | 64 | 78.1%50 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 26c | 526.44$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.87 | 501 | 49.5%248 W · 253 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 30c | 350.02$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.34 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…bd88backed Under | 74c | 337.84$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.84 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 28c | 314.51$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.06 | 326 | 45.4%148 W · 178 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Over | 26c | 293.58$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.73 | 170 | 32.9%56 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe375…dadfbacked Under | 72c | 277.78$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7e…c230backed Over | 38c | 263.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 27c | 251.35$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 27c | 249.99$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 31c | 230.68$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.05 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Under | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Over | 27c | 157.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.46 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 79c | 120.92$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 38c | 119.79$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 340 | 50%170 W · 170 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 26c | 114.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 351 | 48.4%170 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 16c | 111.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 444 | 24.1%107 W · 337 L | -50.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 67c | 93.2$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.34 | 288 | 47.6%137 W · 151 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 72c | 92.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 428 | 51.4%220 W · 208 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x277e…259ebacked Under | 74c | 81.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 26c | 74.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b8…19e1backed Under | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 33c | 69.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Under | 72c | 63.8$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…ff5fbacked Under | 59c | 59.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8a…8775backed Under | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…6f38backed Over | 29c | 52.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 176 | 51.7%91 W · 85 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 132 | 51.5%68 W · 64 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x798e…4df3backed Over | 39c | 43.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 44cpaid | -71%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 74c | 36.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 411 | 47.9%197 W · 214 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…97b6backed Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c65…6b11backed Under | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…038cbacked Under | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0b…f954backed Under | 80c | 20.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c87…7f4abacked Under | 74c | 14.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3190…93bbbacked Under | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5this page
- Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)Real Betis Balompié won
- Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.