La Liga · resolved market
Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85778bacedcc1056efad92d1cc24b6a1e0d64b69e47b6641ede493aac587a0a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,024
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,024 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 22c | 10,044$2,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,163.16 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 25c | 4,396$1,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.11 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Over | 75c | 4,274$3,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.34 | 241 | 47.7%115 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Over | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 2c | 1,916$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Over | 75c | 1,349$1,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.28 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Under | 15c | 1,163$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.43 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc4…99adbacked Under | 26c | 769.23$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…20e7backed Over | 80c | 750$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fef…5946backed Over | 75c | 672.79$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.2 | 132 | 63.6%84 W · 48 L | +7.8wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 16c | 591.24$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 75c | 546.67$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.67 | 95 | 64.2%61 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87e8…5e6ebacked Over | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 64 | 78.1%50 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 26c | 389.14$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.18 | 326 | 45.4%148 W · 178 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 25c | 310$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.5 | 351 | 48.4%170 W · 181 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 22c | 299.64$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 170 | 32.9%56 W · 114 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under | 26c | 273.27$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 890 | 50%445 W · 445 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 128 | 75%96 W · 32 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 74c | 250$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Under | 26c | 194.57$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.59 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Under | 20c | 189.2$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc470…c792backed Under | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 140 | 28.6%40 W · 100 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 25c | 106.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 75c | 96$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 265 | 50.9%135 W · 130 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed Under | 25c | 79.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 109 | 47.7%52 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…d370backed Under | 26c | 77.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Under | 25c | 77.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 25c | 74.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,038 | 48.1%499 W · 539 L | +17.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…c2e5backed Over | 75c | 71.23$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 247 | 57.5%142 W · 105 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…b1bfbacked Over | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 81 | 70.4%57 W · 24 L | +8.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 489 | 34.4%168 W · 321 L | +26.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Over | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…cbe8backed Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f9…e294backed Over | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5649…99adbacked Over | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Over | 75c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 67cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd8a…f9bdbacked Over | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6da…b2cdbacked Over | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5this page
- Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5Under won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5Under won
- Real Betis Balompié vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)Real Betis Balompié won
- Spread: Real Betis Balompié (-1.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.