Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9f3b1f0d2c65a0b066b4dbb7cdf318e5d11d80ce140eff5db878be0835930de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,409
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 37c | 6,295$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,975.34 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x122b…ac59backed No | 15c | 4,700$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.66 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 27cpaid | +669.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 70c | 2,857$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.88 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 20c | 1,446$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.69 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x208c…6b98backed Yes | 31c | 1,202$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.65 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed No | 69c | 1,200$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$828 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 50c | 1,006$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.51 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65b5…aa71backed No | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -5.1wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 23c | 821$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.83 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 51c | 681.36$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.15 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 77c | 655.67$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.8 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed Yes | 54c | 590.41$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.87 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked No | 71c | 512$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.52 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…2957backed No | 61c | 512$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 70c | 403.57$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.57 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Yes | 79c | 227.9$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.01 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed No | 29c | 216.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.91 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…1422backed No | 60c | 188.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad2…9401backed Yes | 40c | 165$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +92.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 71c | 155$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.05 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…48ffbacked Yes | 30c | 153.33$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.33 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 29c | 150$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 126 | 47.6%60 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 30c | 139.66$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 72c | 103.24$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.88 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 100.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 162 | 24.1%39 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3d…d65dbacked Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4c…5695backed Yes | 28c | 93.07$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed No | 23c | 80.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 31c | 77.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 31c | 72.93$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.32 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 53c | 65.87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed No | 23c | 65.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed No | 71c | 64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -4.5wins | -0.30per pick | 50cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1683…3cc1backed Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 70c | 51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd06b…3353backed Yes | 44c | 48.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 109 | 64.2%70 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ea…487abacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 27cpaid | +135%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66fc…2a1fbacked Yes | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient end in a draw?this page
- Will FC Lorient win on 2026-08-22?No won
- Will OGC Nice win on 2026-08-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.