Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient win on 2026-08-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa313891aa01c8398df8e9cf1ce5a2a5af9c29a98b2a418c6fe9d348237715ec0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 4,429$1,144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,143.77 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed No | 73c | 4,000$2,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.98 | 63 | 47.6%30 W · 33 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 72c | 3,675$2,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.02 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 29c | 3,276$953 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$953.27 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed No | 72c | 3,235$2,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$921.84 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed No | 70c | 2,168$1,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.52 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 29c | 1,259$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.02 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 9c | 1,152$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.66 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 260 | 41.9%109 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked No | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…0dedbacked Yes | 30c | 990.95$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Yes | 28c | 750$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 71c | 716$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.3 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34c…2e29backed Yes | 31c | 645.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 73c | 594.03$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.39 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 15c | 576.61$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.4 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 68cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Yes | 15c | 420$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6a…a7bfbacked No | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23c…5ae7backed Yes | 5c | 360$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 30c | 341.03$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 233 | 42.5%99 W · 134 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7106…1caabacked Yes | 17c | 287.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc28c…6fb2backed Yes | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 71c | 239.97$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.69 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Yes | 18c | 180$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.26 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb226…4163backed No | 72c | 164.6$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…48ffbacked Yes | 29c | 151.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x572e…ac69backed No | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed Yes | 20c | 140$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70cb…950ebacked No | 72c | 139$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 27c | 138$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 11c | 127.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 118.38$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.21 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Yes | 24c | 117.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…44e9backed Yes | 27c | 117.14$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.63 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3820…ffc3backed Yes | 30c | 109.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 80c | 105$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0598…3d83backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 243 | 49.4%120 W · 123 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed No | 72c | 90.91$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 90.41$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 28c | 74.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 162 | 24.1%39 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb830…b4debacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 74cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 28c | 68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Yes | 27c | 68$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b47…d814backed No | 73c | 65.6$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…c7c8backed Yes | 21c | 64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd4…b303backed Yes | 28c | 60.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…4815backed Yes | 28c | 47.12$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed3…274cbacked Yes | 27c | 45.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 71c | 42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Yes | 27c | 40.77$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Yes | 27c | 39.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed No | 70c | 39.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1950…1bf4backed Yes | 28c | 38.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 80c | 37.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf767…c94bbacked Yes | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked No | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd355…e402backed No | 71c | 27.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked No | 73c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 136 | 55.9%76 W · 60 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…54aebacked No | 71c | 18.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 72c | 18.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 73c | 18.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 72c | 16.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient win on 2026-08-22?this page
- Will OGC Nice vs. FC Lorient end in a draw?Yes won
- Will OGC Nice win on 2026-08-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.