Tennis · resolved market
Hong Kong Tennis Open: Alexandre Muller vs Miomir Kecmanovic
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba08c99eb0b8073faf7f431c702dc91febda16f4ff5588a916618b893016b744
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mullerof Muller, Kecmanovic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Muller | 62c | 3,586$2,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,351.35 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed Kecmanovic | 43c | 1,757$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.5 | 316 | 47.8%151 W · 165 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Kecmanovic | 12c | 1,728$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.41 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Muller | 62c | 1,465$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.97 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3a…df40backed Kecmanovic | 62c | 1,336$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.07 | 238 | 47.1%112 W · 126 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Kecmanovic | 44c | 700.04$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.14 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kecmanovic | 31c | 516$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.59 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kecmanovic | 47c | 492.07$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.12 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Kecmanovic | 48c | 432.96$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.65 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Kecmanovic | 46c | 409.21$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.99 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea63…682cbacked Kecmanovic | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Muller | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Kecmanovic | 52c | 217.31$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.53 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Kecmanovic | 57c | 206.98$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.98 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f2…49b3backed Muller | 77c | 199.5$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.68 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Kecmanovic | 13c | 181.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Muller | 56c | 178.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.26 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3759…6b3bbacked Muller | 78c | 170.17$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.7 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…57d4backed Kecmanovic | 20c | 163.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.65 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde18…83bcbacked Kecmanovic | 65c | 162$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.86 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf37c…3c74backed Kecmanovic | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed Muller | 39c | 153$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.66 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Kecmanovic | 31c | 146.9$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 1,410 | 38.4%542 W · 868 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Kecmanovic | 57c | 145.62$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…2041backed Muller | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.86 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -37%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Muller | 37c | 133.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.67 | 186 | 59.7%111 W · 75 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked Muller | 42c | 133.39$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.39 | 643 | 50.2%323 W · 320 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Kecmanovic | 39c | 125.35$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.66 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Muller | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9f…a82fbacked Kecmanovic | 26c | 112.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +82%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Muller | 63c | 111.37$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.01 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Muller | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Muller | 75c | 91.16$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 1,193 | 48.9%583 W · 610 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Muller | 42c | 90.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.78 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Kecmanovic | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 243 | 40.3%98 W · 145 L | -11.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…ed2ebacked Kecmanovic | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…5607backed Muller | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kecmanovic | 53c | 60.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.37 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Kecmanovic | 55c | 56.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c82…05cfbacked Kecmanovic | 57c | 55$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 107 | 55.1%59 W · 48 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Muller | 37c | 49.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.09 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Kecmanovic | 48c | 48.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 191 | 67%128 W · 63 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Kecmanovic | 56c | 46.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d66…0e16backed Muller | 44c | 45.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…39a7backed Kecmanovic | 54c | 44.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09e…5047backed Muller | 56c | 44.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.43 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Muller | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…f5eabacked Kecmanovic | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9651…0891backed Muller | 53c | 38.68$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…121cbacked Muller | 64c | 38.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4883…98abbacked Muller | 79c | 31.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 76cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Kecmanovic | 59c | 30.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Muller | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Muller | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 488 | 52.9%258 W · 230 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Kecmanovic | 49c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 319 | 48.9%156 W · 163 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…19bebacked Muller | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…bf70backed Muller | 78c | 21.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Kecmanovic | 49c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 318 | 42.5%135 W · 183 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04fa…526dbacked Muller | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Hong Kong Tennis Open: Alexandre Muller vs Miomir Kecmanovicthis page
- Muller vs. Kecmanovic: Total Sets O/U 2.5Under 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Muller vs KecmanovicMuller won
- Set Handicap: Kecmanovic (-1.5) vs Muller (+1.5)Muller won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.