Asian League · resolved market
Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-08-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba3f78bac9061dcf478751fbd90f8c4119c2b2f15676e730a08a3af9f2433e25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 34c | 5,900$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.38 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac3…e2c1backed Yes | 34c | 2,941$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 66c | 2,883$1,903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.12 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 66c | 1,887$1,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.55 | 1,725 | 50.6%873 W · 852 L | +28.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 66c | 1,846$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.99 | 396 | 49.7%197 W · 199 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 71c | 1,154$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.21 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 35c | 937.18$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.01 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 66c | 897.46$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.14 | 388 | 49.5%192 W · 196 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed No | 65c | 762$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.92 | 294 | 32%94 W · 200 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 69c | 702.73$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.06 | 1,221 | 50.2%613 W · 608 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 67c | 670.27$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.44 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 66c | 437.23$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.66 | 1,764 | 50.2%886 W · 878 L | +31.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes | 24c | 416.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 31c | 391$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.21 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 29c | 378.38$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.7 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ec…351fbacked Yes | 24c | 291.67$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 281.93$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.45 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 183.03$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 67c | 149.98$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 539 | 46.9%253 W · 286 L | -14.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Yes | 30c | 137.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 169 | 29%49 W · 120 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e3…f1bdbacked No | 73c | 131.79$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.06 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Yes | 33c | 121.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 66c | 101$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 531 | 48.8%259 W · 272 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +18%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Yes | 23c | 84.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa29…9ce5backed Yes | 35c | 76.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ace…23d1backed Yes | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b9…a814backed No | 76c | 73.71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0232…09d2backed No | 70c | 71.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee3…017dbacked Yes | 31c | 67.58$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.95 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Yes | 32c | 59.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.02 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed No | 78c | 58.55$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 206 | 38.8%80 W · 126 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Yes | 24c | 45.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 144 | 40.3%58 W · 86 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed No | 78c | 41$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6d…c697backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 77c | 29.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 426 | 25.8%110 W · 316 L | -33.7wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -40%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 441 | 52.4%231 W · 210 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed No | 67c | 23.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 153 | 52.9%81 W · 72 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 75c | 19.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 244 | 48.4%118 W · 126 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf39…7032backed No | 70c | 17.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gamba Ōsaka win on 2026-08-22?this page
- Will Nagoya Grampus vs. Gamba Ōsaka end in a draw?No won
- Will Nagoya Grampus win on 2026-08-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.