TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbf6d…c697

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
44
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: NBA, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 54 out of 100; worst Champions League at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$75.86
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Spain vs. Belgium: Team to Advancebacked Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+34.2%+$68.46
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will England win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$81.82
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$23.53
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$18.46
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$7.63
All 9 picks, newest first.
Tweetslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+135.1%+$101.88
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+103.4%+$15.52
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+259.7%+$77.91
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
All 8 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+46%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions Leaguelast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian Leaguelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+110.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$34.05
Pelicans vs. Kingsbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+51.5%+$20.61
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tennislast resolved Aug 19, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Cincinnati Open (Doubles): Siniakova/Townsend vs Jovic/McNallybacked Jovic/McNally · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+55.6%+$55.63
Roehampton: Michael Geerts vs Radu Albotbacked Michael Geerts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$49.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-08-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$86
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+69.5%+$8.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+43.5%+$6.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$5.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagueslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SC Corinthians Paulista win on 2026-08-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)backed Alex Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.