Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1567da154fac14bfbe4259d6f19ab59ce95eec917170a0604a91596d0376c557
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,031
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,031 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6261…2e11backed No | 45c | 730.44$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.18 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 63cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 80c | 509.14$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.72 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 430.19$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.38 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff3…eb39backed No | 38c | 389$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.29 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed Yes | 59c | 339.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.32 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 34c | 332.65$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.54 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 25c | 276.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked No | 6c | 252.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 36c | 233.68$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…fef0backed No | 31c | 230$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.19 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 213.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 56c | 200.95$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.22 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3500…07f0backed Yes | 60c | 200.93$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.37 | 155 | 27.7%43 W · 112 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 72c | 165$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f6a…eb61backed Yes | 71c | 161.3$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.06 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 67c | 146.95$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 41c | 143.96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.24 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 136.96$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb902…06d8backed Yes | 74c | 135.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 71 | 59.2%42 W · 29 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 33c | 132.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 78c | 128.75$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 40c | 123.71$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 40c | 121.53$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.54 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 40c | 115$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 38c | 106.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.71 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8192…871ebacked Yes | 79c | 101.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…c4b6backed Yes | 69c | 93.05$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 43c | 92$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 66c | 90.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.91 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 71c | 89.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 34c | 86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 30c | 84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 56c | 80$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 60c | 79.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 26c | 78.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe882…bf46backed Yes | 72c | 77.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 32c | 74.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 78c | 73.29$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.03 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b9a…0f66backed Yes | 68c | 73.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 25c | 69.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375b…0ebbbacked Yes | 73c | 68.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x457e…72ddbacked Yes | 49c | 68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 61c | 65.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.91 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 65c | 65.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35fb…8511backed Yes | 71c | 63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 251 | 35.1%88 W · 163 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 35c | 62.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed Yes | 59c | 62.47$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 47c | 62.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 33c | 60.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14af…887ebacked Yes | 64c | 60.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 47 | 59.6%28 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1468…0745backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 56.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 68c | 55.62$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked Yes | 72c | 54.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 44c | 50.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 55c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 60c | 49.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 34c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 32c | 48.28$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 73c | 48.09$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.09 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 39c | 46.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa05d…e9a8backed Yes | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 71c | 42.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc67e…8929backed Yes | 47c | 39.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 39$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42cb…0abdbacked Yes | 68c | 38.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b88…63dfbacked Yes | 68c | 38.41$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 57c | 38.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.29 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098d…6cc2backed Yes | 77c | 38.12$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 38 | 81.6%31 W · 7 L | +4.6wins | +0.12per pick | 70cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes | 57c | 36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 227 | 40.5%92 W · 135 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 54c | 33.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…f8a3backed Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 103 | 54.4%56 W · 47 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…9d00backed Yes | 59c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 31.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 64c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 49c | 30.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3057…bf7bbacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 67c | 29.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 68c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.31 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 56c | 28.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 69c | 28.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 124 | 53.2%66 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 71c | 28.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 71c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 73c | 27.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 60c | 26.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 54c | 26.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 77c | 25.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 75c | 25.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43eb…3d85backed Yes | 55c | 25.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ee…2d2ebacked Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 74c | 23.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 68c | 23.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.