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NBA · resolved market

Pelicans vs. Kings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Pelicansof Pelicans, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,291,164

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,291,164 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,027 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1bc0…4429backed Kings35c164,735$57,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57,50048343.7%211 W · 272 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Pelicans66c95,382$63,243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,139.171,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Kings30c82,334$25,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,999.9336549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Pelicans69c73,503$50,717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,786.042,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Kings35c57,445$20,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,100.541,04447.5%496 W · 548 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4924…3782backed Kings30c55,409$16,623 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,622.8587451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Kings28c50,438$14,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,214.242,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Pelicans70c49,788$34,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,944.3615349%75 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67bb…b6efbacked Pelicans75c35,000$26,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,75034456.7%195 W · 149 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Pelicans70c35,000$24,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,499.991,12448.6%546 W · 578 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e9…4044backed Pelicans68c30,000$20,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,6009053.3%48 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Pelicans68c29,952$20,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,587.851,19032%381 W · 809 L-58.1wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed Pelicans65c28,710$18,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,048.530845.8%141 W · 167 L-12.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Pelicans64c26,757$17,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,632.491,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Kings33c25,410$8,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,351.674,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Kings33c25,076$8,232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,232.174,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1461…30a1backed Kings35c20,577$7,202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,201.9525546.7%119 W · 136 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Pelicans70c20,000$14,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,0001,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9e8…b5e3backed Kings34c19,783$6,726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,726.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-55%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Kings31c16,261$5,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,110.8832540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Pelicans70c15,000$10,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Pelicans68c15,000$10,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,80077348.5%375 W · 398 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ca1…ddcdbacked Kings28c14,187$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0007638.2%29 W · 47 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid+20.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Kings7c13,500$945 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94514663.7%93 W · 53 L+11.6wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8716…bd57backed Kings31c13,332$4,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,132.9241832.8%137 W · 281 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd857…c092backed Pelicans65c13,031$8,470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,560.857142.3%30 W · 41 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Kings32c13,000$4,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,135.551,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44f…d49fbacked Pelicans66c12,876$8,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,377.8448352%251 W · 232 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe021…e299backed Kings37c12,200$4,514 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,513.9910035%35 W · 65 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x19be…2541backed Pelicans63c12,200$7,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,513.969758.8%57 W · 40 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Kings32c11,917$3,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,808.762,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Pelicans67c11,663$7,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,868.31,90854.5%1,040 W · 868 L+53.7wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Kings24c11,111$2,667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,666.6228241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea22…747abacked Kings0c11,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2067921.4%145 W · 534 L+32.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+33.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7af9…b408backed Pelicans64c10,173$6,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,662.436657.6%38 W · 28 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7729…a60bbacked Kings0c10,095$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Kings36c10,000$3,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,599.962050%10 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Pelicans70c9,759$6,832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,927.8257950.1%290 W · 289 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Kings34c9,686$3,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,331.671,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Pelicans67c9,120$6,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,009.628554%154 W · 131 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Pelicans69c9,075$6,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,808.7348956.4%276 W · 213 L+31.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Kings0c8,762$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.288820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4137…586cbacked Kings35c8,580$2,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,983.1447043.8%206 W · 264 L-22.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Pelicans67c8,037$5,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,659.175,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf05…291bbacked Kings44c8,033$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5002744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2694…64a5backed Pelicans66c7,539$4,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,563.25475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+21.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Pelicans66c7,444$4,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,530.7932039.4%126 W · 194 L-1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Pelicans70c7,356$5,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,193.0612951.9%67 W · 62 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Pelicans66c7,000$4,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,379.9987750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed Pelicans70c6,766$4,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.89343%40 W · 53 L-4.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Kings23c6,595$1,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,548.594,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Kings31c6,523$2,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.162,07853.6%1,113 W · 965 L+44.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71f9…da63backed Pelicans66c6,207$4,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,110.21580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+87.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x894f…e372backed Pelicans67c6,150$4,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,029.5580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Kings34c6,050$2,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,05717162.6%107 W · 64 L+10.1wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Pelicans70c6,000$4,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,78035251.1%180 W · 172 L+8.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0389…3e49backed Pelicans66c5,875$3,877 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,997.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Pelicans64c5,873$3,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,114.2838253.4%204 W · 178 L+6.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd506…4f0ebacked Kings10c5,814$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.091973.7%14 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick66cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Pelicans68c5,701$3,872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,828.851354.2%278 W · 235 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Pelicans67c5,330$3,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,751.613,59150.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L+21.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pelicans66c5,227$3,447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,779.999,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7517…0353backed Kings34c5,200$1,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,749.8427865.8%183 W · 95 L+25.4wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Kings6c5,100$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.041,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed Pelicans65c5,060$3,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,757.5826842.9%115 W · 153 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8000…3a21backed Kings31c5,000$1,555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,555.4125947.5%123 W · 136 L+14.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c1d…3846backed Kings34c5,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7006943.5%30 W · 39 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34fc…050cbacked Pelicans66c5,000$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,699.998052.5%42 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Kings37c5,000$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,824.9969149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Kings4c4,931$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.863179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Kings38c4,904$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,860.182,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Pelicans61c4,861$2,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,871.6922458.9%132 W · 92 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9f50…3191backed Pelicans66c4,796$3,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,621.887865.4%51 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1fa3…ab9cbacked Kings42c4,776$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00017246.5%80 W · 92 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b9a…5f69backed Kings2c4,637$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.65213.8%20 W · 501 L+0.6wins0.00per pick4cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62c0…49bfbacked Kings5c4,263$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.961816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-33%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0858…612ebacked Pelicans63c4,239$2,671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,568.431668.8%11 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.18per pick51cpaid+22.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe00c…bb58backed Kings33c4,200$1,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,385.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21d4…84bdbacked Pelicans66c4,074$2,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.247850%39 W · 39 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92fe…99bdbacked Kings37c4,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4802441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Pelicans70c4,000$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,20038649.7%192 W · 194 L+10.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa3b…d6b7backed Kings36c4,000$1,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,439.995658.9%33 W · 23 L+7.1wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+21.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1fe3…e0fdbacked Pelicans61c3,735$2,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,456.720349.8%101 W · 102 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4309…7456backed Kings36c3,650$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,321.561336.1%221 W · 392 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Pelicans59c3,600$2,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,47635744.3%158 W · 199 L+1.5wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Kings37c3,461$1,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,278.0729250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Pelicans71c3,396$2,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$985.433,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c63…3cbbbacked Pelicans66c3,376$2,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,153.626958%40 W · 29 L-5.5wins-0.08per pick66cpaid-13.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8436…4c19backed Pelicans63c3,300$2,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2213366.7%22 W · 11 L+5.7wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+55.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Pelicans65c3,251$2,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.152,50748.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L+19.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x258d…6f77backed Kings37c3,203$1,185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.111338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed Pelicans67c3,134$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,034.3324151.9%125 W · 116 L-7.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Kings34c3,110$1,058 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.655346.8%259 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c49…dd2dbacked Kings36c3,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,08020048%96 W · 104 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-8.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x02b6…fbbbbacked Pelicans65c2,923$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,023.053256.3%18 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-16.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Pelicans66c2,902$1,922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.53,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed Pelicans68c2,902$1,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$928.6419957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3a68…7b56backed Pelicans71c2,801$1,989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$812.258055%44 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7900…8a63backed Kings37c2,746$1,016 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,016.021540%6 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb64…5e23backed Kings10c2,622$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.226530.9%82 W · 183 L+0.8wins0.00per pick31cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.