NBA · resolved market

Pelicans vs. Kings: O/U 235.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbdb205094a5ac5564e9ff308313241c1a6b9ba0e806bc8f9bc7b23693ced489f

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $174,556

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,556 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over	50c	96,745$48,336 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48,408.91	874	51.5%450 W · 424 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37e4…c991backed Under	50c	75,000$37,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37,500	246	50%123 W · 123 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Under	50c	30,450$15,225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15,225	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under	57c	11,113$6,322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,321.68	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe276…a85bbacked Under	54c	8,000$4,320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,319.6	125	52%65 W · 60 L	+3.3wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over	49c	6,441$3,136 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,304.38	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x336b…1233backed Under	50c	6,000$3,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,000	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.4wins	-0.11per pick	52cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Over	50c	5,967$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,966.98	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Over	46c	5,805$2,670 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,134.62	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Over	49c	5,689$2,814 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,874.91	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	50c	5,485$2,743 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,741.88	2,346	48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L	-14.3wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b47…d615backed Over	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,500	579	50.1%290 W · 289 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fa3…ab9cbacked Under	49c	4,082$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	172	46.5%80 W · 92 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	50c	2,287$1,143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,144.17	4,682	49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L	+27.2wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked Under	50c	2,000$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	87	47.1%41 W · 46 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Under	53c	1,887$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	112	49.1%55 W · 57 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	50c	1,800$900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	50c	1,426$715 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$714.71	3,341	53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L	+108.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4a4…3117backed Under	4c	1,411$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.05	286	16.4%47 W · 239 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Under	50c	1,369$686 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$685.8	2,507	48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L	+19.8wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Over	50c	1,002$501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$501.01	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0eca…6a15backed Over	50c	979$490 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$489.5	97	42.3%41 W · 56 L	-10.0wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-19%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Over	51c	794$405 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$389.06	266	38.7%103 W · 163 L	-9.9wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Over	50c	741.13$371 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$370.57	259	51.4%133 W · 126 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Over	50c	700$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$350	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	50c	530.38$265 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.8	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Under	52c	529.75$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.47	529	51.2%271 W · 258 L	+13.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Over	49c	523.43$256 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$267.26	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Under	51c	492.64$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.25	292	43.8%128 W · 164 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94a1…2075backed Under	50c	400$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	31	48.4%15 W · 16 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86d9…b214backed Under	51c	392.16$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	218	54.6%119 W · 99 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed Under	52c	350$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182	55	58.2%32 W · 23 L	+4.9wins	+0.09per pick	49cpaid	+17.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Under	49c	300$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148	911	48.1%438 W · 473 L	-11.6wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x450b…11d7backed Under	52c	288.46$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	521	46.6%243 W · 278 L	-14.2wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under	60c	267$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.2	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f5e…94e9backed Under	50c	200$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	227	46.3%105 W · 122 L	-8.8wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67b4…19acbacked Under	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	40	52.5%21 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Under	52c	200$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104	477	48.8%233 W · 244 L	+1.8wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x292e…172cbacked Under	52c	192.31$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	434	47.5%206 W · 228 L	-8.9wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0da3…1b45backed Under	53c	178.68$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.44	222	49.5%110 W · 112 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under	52c	177.02$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.3	1,197	48.9%585 W · 612 L	-14.8wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x187b…8848backed Under	53c	132.08$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	722	50.6%365 W · 357 L	-17.6wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf2d…e660backed Over	52c	123.85$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.45	113	43.4%49 W · 64 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	52c	116.5$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.58	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Under	51c	100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	255	59.2%151 W · 104 L	+13.4wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Under	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	954	52.3%499 W · 455 L	-17.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Over	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	534	53.4%285 W · 249 L	+19.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fbd…b8d3backed Under	50c	99.92$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.98	672	48.8%328 W · 344 L	-10.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x00b7…5b93backed Under	50c	99.71$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.88	256	51.6%132 W · 124 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Under	50c	92.98$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.73	390	55.6%217 W · 173 L	+8.8wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6912…2aabbacked Under	52c	80.77$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	77	44.2%34 W · 43 L	-5.8wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xccef…8effbacked Under	51c	78.45$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.01	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over	48c	78.38$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.78	1,425	47.7%680 W · 745 L	+13.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd63e…0d52backed Under	66c	75.76$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	165	55.2%91 W · 74 L	-12.1wins	-0.07per pick	62cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Over	34c	75.76$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	3,342	43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L	+81.2wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53cd…f23ebacked Under	52c	75$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	435	44.6%194 W · 241 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over	44c	74.26$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.44	1,532	42.5%651 W · 881 L	-17.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Under	50c	67.37$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.01	648	44.8%290 W · 358 L	-32.3wins	-0.05per pick	50cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…110bbacked Over	52c	67.06$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.19	308	45.8%141 W · 167 L	-1.2wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe4bf…c71ebacked Under	50c	60$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	36	61.1%22 W · 14 L	+3.5wins	+0.10per pick	51cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe102…67babacked Under	53c	57.92$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.7	36	69.4%25 W · 11 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	65cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca82…2edcbacked Under	51c	45.47$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Under	52c	41.7$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.68	525	52%273 W · 252 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d69…01aebacked Over	50c	40.2$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.2	33	54.5%18 W · 15 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fb9…a8b3backed Over	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	236	57.2%135 W · 101 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Under	52c	38.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	186	50%93 W · 93 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under	50c	38$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a67…0b8abacked Under	49c	38$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.62	239	50.6%121 W · 118 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e66…e1b2backed Under	50c	35$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	118	50%59 W · 59 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9651…0488backed Under	52c	34.62$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	62	45.2%28 W · 34 L	-3.6wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x58c2…cf66backed Over	48c	31.25$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.25	58	41.4%24 W · 34 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Over	49c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.3	1,109	41.8%464 W · 645 L	-20.3wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e15…8ea4backed Under	57c	29.82$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	85	63.5%54 W · 31 L	+8.4wins	+0.10per pick	54cpaid	+22.8%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x266c…60f0backed Under	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.16per pick	32cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc981…a53dbacked Under	52c	28.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	25	48%12 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c20…6fd4backed Over	64c	26.64$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.64	59	59.3%35 W · 24 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0586…882dbacked Under	52c	26.25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	57cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under	51c	21.91$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.18	591	41.8%247 W · 344 L	-26.2wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Pelicans vs. Kings: O/U 235.5this page
1H Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)Pelicans won
1H Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)Pelicans won
DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
Pelicans vs. KingsPelicans won
Pelicans vs. Kings: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
Pelicans vs. Kings: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
Pelicans vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Over won
Pelicans vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Over won
Pelicans vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Over won
Pelicans vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Over won
Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 21.5No won
Spread: Pelicans (-4.5)Pelicans won
Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)Pelicans won
Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 4.5No won
Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 22.5No won
Trey Murphy III: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
Zion Williamson: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Pelicans vs. Kings: O/U 235.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event