TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pelicans vs. Kings: O/U 232.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,172

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,172 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6a3…9489backed Under48c2,815$1,351 inLost-$1,351.084,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over53c2,400$1,265 inWon+$1,135.363,34153.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L+108.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Over53c1,133$600 inWon+$532.391,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under47c1,042$487 inLost-$486.814,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8314…0f1ebacked Over52c500$260 inWon+$24033150.8%168 W · 163 L+1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under48c482.23$231 inLost-$231.472,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over52c326.03$169 inWon+$157.488,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x66cc…7135backed Over54c194.53$105 inWon+$89.9521250.5%107 W · 105 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over53c179.17$96 inWon+$83.542853%227 W · 201 L+7.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Over52c138.99$72 inWon+$66.7239055.6%217 W · 173 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under45c133.33$60 inLost-$602,60250.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L-20.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c102.78$48 inLost-$48.389,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Under47c100$47 inLost-$4778648.7%383 W · 403 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Under26c77.64$20 inLost-$20.311,53242.5%651 W · 881 L-17.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Over57c64.3$37 inWon+$27.651,52249.6%755 W · 767 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under43c64.3$28 inLost-$27.651,42547.7%680 W · 745 L+13.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Over55c54.33$30 inWon+$24.451,15747.9%554 W · 603 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe824…65b4backed Under44c43.1$19 inLost-$18.9652552%273 W · 252 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under48c42$20 inLost-$20.1646447.8%222 W · 242 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x71b6…4e91backed Under48c41.67$20 inLost-$2036350.1%182 W · 181 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under47c41.23$19 inLost-$19.272,90238.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L-51.9wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Under52c39.81$21 inLost-$20.790357%515 W · 388 L+40.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3f9…0975backed Under45c31.11$14 inLost-$144231%13 W · 29 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x13f4…48c6backed Over54c27.78$15 inWon+$12.7813852.9%73 W · 65 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7509…d031backed Over52c20$10 inWon+$9.620847.1%98 W · 110 L-9.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.