TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 22.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,943

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,943 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x696a…e23abacked Yes38c851.78$324 inLost-$323.6817151.5%88 W · 83 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9719…6ffabacked No62c850$527 inWon+$3236669.7%46 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Yes38c772.53$294 inLost-$293.561,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe17…dd5cbacked Yes32c355.15$112 inLost-$112.471060%6 W · 4 L+2.6wins+0.26per pick34cpaid+62.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe225…ee35backed Yes31c300$93 inLost-$92.92250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7205…3377backed No69c300$207 inWon+$9345657%260 W · 196 L+44.6wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+15.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed No68c237.03$161 inWon+$75.851,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No69c100$69 inWon+$3160267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Yes55c71.39$39 inLost-$39.261,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5767…8cc1backed No45c52.28$24 inWon+$28.751,08442.4%460 W · 624 L-48.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b45…9723backed No62c43.16$27 inWon+$16.426069.2%180 W · 80 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick66cpaid+4.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No54c41$22 inWon+$18.864,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46ae…0519backed Yes40c34.1$14 inLost-$13.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed No45c33.33$15 inWon+$18.3319352.8%102 W · 91 L+11.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf804…8758backed Yes38c30$11 inLost-$11.43839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed No44c25.66$11 inWon+$14.372,65749.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L+42.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.