NBA · resolved market
Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x40247159bdb183ec09e12e67cd7bfce2d3eff6d6186c82a7cd6eb2d42f9c4231
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,007 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb48e…d489backed Yes | 35c | 1,249$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.98 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…9723backed No | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680 | 260 | 69.2%180 W · 80 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa858…3684backed Yes | 32c | 812.5$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked No | 66c | 798.33$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$527.53 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Yes | 34c | 615.81$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.51 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…f0d4backed No | 66c | 580.2$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.93 | 1,085 | 63.6%690 W · 395 L | +86.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9f1e…0673backed Yes | 33c | 510$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.9 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed No | 63c | 499.99$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 456 | 57%260 W · 196 L | +44.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 61c | 409.77$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.03 | 266 | 38.7%103 W · 163 L | -9.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…bbcebacked Yes | 38c | 264.74$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.74 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10ef…bff0backed Yes | 32c | 219$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 33cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 62c | 204.74$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.94 | 908 | 63.9%580 W · 328 L | +80.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 62c | 162.7$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.71 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf305…8299backed Yes | 33c | 154.6$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…2ed1backed Yes | 39c | 104.07$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.07 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe17…dd5cbacked Yes | 33c | 100.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 952 | 60.2%573 W · 379 L | +37.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 60c | 83.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 970 | 49.5%480 W · 490 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa528…2499backed No | 68c | 77.06$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.37 | 831 | 58.1%483 W · 348 L | +18.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…c1d3backed No | 63c | 75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 227 | 74.4%169 W · 58 L | +22.5wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xabdd…2d96backed No | 67c | 71.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 602 | 67.3%405 W · 197 L | +46.2wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked No | 67c | 58.3$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 920 | 58%534 W · 386 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee76…ef51backed Yes | 38c | 53.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.41 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd9…bfe8backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 657 | 62.3%409 W · 248 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 61c | 42$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2691…f3b8backed Yes | 40c | 40.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ba18backed Yes | 33c | 36.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x185f…3649backed No | 48c | 22.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 64c | 19.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 148 | 60.1%89 W · 59 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 24 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 3.5this page
- 1H Spread: Pelicans (-2.5)Pelicans won
- 1H Spread: Pelicans (-3.5)Pelicans won
- DeMar DeRozan: Points O/U 14.5Yes won
- Pelicans vs. KingsPelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Kings: 1H MoneylinePelicans won
- Pelicans vs. Kings: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Over won
- Pelicans vs. Kings: O/U 235.5Over won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Russell Westbrook: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Russell Westbrook: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Saddiq Bey: Points O/U 21.5No won
- Spread: Pelicans (-4.5)Pelicans won
- Spread: Pelicans (-5.5)Pelicans won
- Trey Murphy III: Assists O/U 4.5No won
- Trey Murphy III: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Trey Murphy III: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Zion Williamson: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Zion Williamson: Points O/U 22.5Yes won
- Zion Williamson: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.