NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba8ede7bed6962762cdda7fcd0026da3c7214fefc348fb9ca3ae46d86b49a668
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,112
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,112 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 25c | 1,852$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.64 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Over | 75c | 770.05$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.51 | 243 | 49.8%121 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 30c | 561.64$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.7 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ca…3266backed Over | 70c | 557.36$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 26c | 478.31$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.12 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 74c | 445.86$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.3 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Under | 23c | 309.39$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.16 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 77c | 230$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.9 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 75c | 184.07$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Under | 17c | 110.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 93 | 21.5%20 W · 73 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 22c | 106.37$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 865 | 49.1%425 W · 440 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 32c | 95.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad9e…53c2backed Over | 77c | 80.36$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 23 | 87%20 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 74cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1554…becdbacked Under | 23c | 76.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf354…5645backed Over | 76c | 70.12$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…f13abacked Over | 76c | 42.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Over | 76c | 39.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 75 | 80%60 W · 15 L | +10.0wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcb…0694backed Over | 76c | 37.76$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570a…fe3ebacked Over | 76c | 37.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.94 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 77cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…44c4backed Over | 76c | 36.16$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5e…8a41backed Over | 76c | 35.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8be6…221cbacked Over | 76c | 35.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…cbc8backed Over | 76c | 34.57$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…df55backed Over | 76c | 34.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x121c…b866backed Over | 76c | 33.66$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe96a…f53bbacked Over | 76c | 33.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…92d2backed Over | 77c | 32.59$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 76cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…42f1backed Over | 76c | 32.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…5ae8backed Over | 76c | 31.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4484…eeadbacked Over | 76c | 31.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe933…0abcbacked Over | 76c | 29.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x221d…83c0backed Over | 76c | 26.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 75c | 26.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…7310backed Over | 76c | 25.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2768…6bc6backed Over | 76c | 23.51$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6231…c97ebacked Over | 76c | 22.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0d…1f81backed Over | 76c | 22.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x40aa…b99bbacked Over | 76c | 21.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d8…f4f1backed Over | 76c | 21.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…d900backed Over | 76c | 21.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4725…6253backed Over | 76c | 21.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…19afbacked Over | 76c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.85 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…3f68backed Over | 76c | 19.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…d4a1backed Over | 76c | 19.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x702a…d666backed Over | 76c | 19.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f9…0bffbacked Over | 76c | 19.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.57 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe2…49d1backed Over | 76c | 18.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked Over | 79c | 18.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 178 | 53.9%96 W · 82 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6783…73f9backed Over | 76c | 18.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +60%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb0…f977backed Over | 76c | 18.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 77c | 17.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…ff8abacked Over | 76c | 14.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1c…fd77backed Over | 76c | 13.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 4.5this page
- Flyers vs. PenguinsPenguins won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 5.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Penguins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Penguins (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.