Tennis · resolved market

Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba9c64b7a33a1c4ef372ccef3f3a55e91a1d5a45b8ddedb66fa8c82b97c1c522

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Madison Keysof Petra Marcinko, Madison Keys
Resolved: Jun 26, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $306,362
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $326,674

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $306,362 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd179…74adbacked Petra Marcinko	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	287	56.1%161 W · 126 L	+11.2wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc8c…273fbacked Petra Marcinko	3c	46,570$1,311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,310.77	151	51.7%78 W · 73 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Petra Marcinko	6c	30,985$1,875 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,875.18	8,828	36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L	-193.3wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Petra Marcinko	0c	19,491$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.11	2,854	39.5%1,126 W · 1,728 L	-83.5wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c68…247abacked Petra Marcinko	18c	11,146$2,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,000	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc927…a3c2backed Petra Marcinko	0c	10,414$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	46	17.4%8 W · 38 L	-3.1wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x749e…1090backed Petra Marcinko	19c	10,000$1,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,900	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x211f…3a34backed Petra Marcinko	11c	6,528$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9527…f108backed Petra Marcinko	0c	6,140$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.4	527	39.3%207 W · 320 L	+37.6wins	+0.07per pick	32cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f3c…2f57backed Petra Marcinko	19c	5,438$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,020	307	40.7%125 W · 182 L	-23.3wins	-0.08per pick	48cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd5d4…8b32backed Petra Marcinko	5c	4,444$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.98	1,206	8%96 W · 1,110 L	+17.2wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+80.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Petra Marcinko	2c	3,090$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.11	2,065	35.2%727 W · 1,338 L	-52.7wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2374…a426backed Petra Marcinko	4c	3,010$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.59	873	37.1%324 W · 549 L	-3.4wins	0.00per pick	38cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Petra Marcinko	3c	2,921$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.63	4,921	38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L	-20.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc26a…b715backed Petra Marcinko	12c	2,669$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.29	573	21.8%125 W · 448 L	-13.1wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9c4…7433backed Madison Keys	80c	1,940$1,552 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$388.05	216	42.6%92 W · 124 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6318…46b1backed Petra Marcinko	15c	1,558$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.18	5,261	28.8%1,514 W · 3,747 L	-19.4wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x332e…df71backed Petra Marcinko	16c	1,552$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.29	429	34.7%149 W · 280 L	-13.3wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e38…1b52backed Petra Marcinko	4c	1,380$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.64	619	24.4%151 W · 468 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2c…2151backed Petra Marcinko	10c	1,200$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	389	11.6%45 W · 344 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Petra Marcinko	15c	1,155$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.32	317	36.9%117 W · 200 L	+10.2wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc98f…a13fbacked Petra Marcinko	3c	1,075$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.16	213	17.4%37 W · 176 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Petra Marcinko	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	580	21.9%127 W · 453 L	+2.5wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x365f…706abacked Petra Marcinko	12c	844.05$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.4	1,795	46.6%837 W · 958 L	+20.0wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc41…6b74backed Petra Marcinko	12c	833.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	35cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a0…fb89backed Petra Marcinko	16c	812.44$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.89	187	41.2%77 W · 110 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Madison Keys	79c	704.96$556 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.32	4,602	48.3%2,223 W · 2,379 L	+34.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Petra Marcinko	3c	580$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.18	87	10.3%9 W · 78 L	-4.3wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-84.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5fe6…a99fbacked Petra Marcinko	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	753	12.2%92 W · 661 L	-21.3wins	-0.03per pick	15cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbc6…9092backed Petra Marcinko	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	366	21.6%79 W · 287 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Petra Marcinko	13c	491.57$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.25	8,505	42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L	-166.3wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Petra Marcinko	17c	482.29$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	1,566	40%627 W · 939 L	-32.0wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Petra Marcinko	3c	445$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.35	921	45.2%416 W · 505 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd034…eecebacked Petra Marcinko	15c	391.7$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.69	2,735	34%931 W · 1,804 L	-13.2wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0ef3…df7fbacked Petra Marcinko	16c	346.59$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.47	108	16.7%18 W · 90 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Madison Keys	79c	320$254 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.92	5,416	48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L	+14.5wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe474…0200backed Petra Marcinko	16c	312.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	78	51.3%40 W · 38 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde7d…499ebacked Petra Marcinko	16c	300$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	271	32.1%87 W · 184 L	+8.5wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	0%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6200…7d23backed Petra Marcinko	4c	292.72$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	74	50%37 W · 37 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5505…aa44backed Petra Marcinko	18c	277.76$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	922	37.4%345 W · 577 L	-10.9wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0537…e9dcbacked Petra Marcinko	11c	268.18$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	142	46.5%66 W · 76 L	+10.6wins	+0.07per pick	39cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x104f…04aabacked Petra Marcinko	20c	258.85$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.77	261	34.1%89 W · 172 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdff7…d9d4backed Petra Marcinko	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	250	20.8%52 W · 198 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccd8…f4debacked Petra Marcinko	16c	241.25$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.6	1,475	35.2%519 W · 956 L	-14.1wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf42a…4b3cbacked Petra Marcinko	18c	238.3$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.89	87	49.4%43 W · 44 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ade…ed94backed Petra Marcinko	16c	235.29$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.65	1,458	54%787 W · 671 L	-33.0wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	+64.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Petra Marcinko	11c	233.93$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.78	1,870	16%299 W · 1,571 L	-314.3wins	-0.17per pick	33cpaid	-65.6%equal weight	32-0.17 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Petra Marcinko	12c	211.43$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.49	9,286	44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L	-245.7wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfbad…4f53backed Petra Marcinko	7c	205$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.05	354	44.6%158 W · 196 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd241…6c35backed Madison Keys	71c	200$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58	80	45%36 W · 44 L	+4.4wins	+0.05per pick	40cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Petra Marcinko	11c	190.94$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.66	1,228	23.1%284 W · 944 L	-164.0wins	-0.13per pick	36cpaid	-47%equal weight	35-0.13 edge/pick
0xdec4…046fbacked Petra Marcinko	11c	172.73$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	178	29.2%52 W · 126 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x985d…33c9backed Petra Marcinko	14c	172.61$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	1,300	36.9%480 W · 820 L	-34.2wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Petra Marcinko	14c	137.32$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.06	2,085	44.5%928 W · 1,157 L	-51.6wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cba…b694backed Petra Marcinko	10c	108.47$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.46	1,429	44.2%631 W · 798 L	-23.1wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08b0…6b33backed Petra Marcinko	16c	105.58$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.89	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Petra Marcinko	15c	101$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.15	95	20%19 W · 76 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa09d…7aa3backed Petra Marcinko	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccb…6cb3backed Madison Keys	71c	100$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29	54	35.2%19 W · 35 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6d2…4a24backed Petra Marcinko	16c	83.62$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	529	10%53 W · 476 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a1d…04f5backed Petra Marcinko	16c	81.24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.94	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0a…ea32backed Petra Marcinko	17c	70.45$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	436	18.3%80 W · 356 L	-21.4wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc5b…2a5abacked Petra Marcinko	15c	69.51$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	169	55.6%94 W · 75 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x029e…b19cbacked Madison Keys	71c	40$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.6	116	44%51 W · 65 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	+9.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x70cf…1b41backed Madison Keys	71c	40$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.6	90	44.4%40 W · 50 L	+6.5wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcc75…af4dbacked Madison Keys	71c	40$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.6	188	41.5%78 W · 110 L	+8.9wins	+0.05per pick	37cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5bd…226cbacked Madison Keys	71c	40$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.6	153	40.5%62 W · 91 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1d6…423dbacked Madison Keys	71c	21.5$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.24	72	40.3%29 W · 43 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keysthis page
Set 1 Winner: Marcinko vs KeysKeys won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Lexus Eastbourne Open: Petra Marcinko vs Madison Keys

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event