Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaa6ce6bf9085ce1da349727137776ef6d98d6ed57df4738b7f60761cecbb1f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,883
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,883 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 6c | 2,395$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.68 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 2c | 2,092$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 5c | 2,022$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.04 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 4c | 1,414$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf132…c706backed Yes | 1c | 1,364$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 308 | 13.6%42 W · 266 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 5c | 1,156$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.54 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 13c | 1,152$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.9 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,005$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 11c | 998.08$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.26 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 12c | 836.18$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 20c | 818.26$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.5 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 2c | 758.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.03 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 10c | 751.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 12c | 681.07$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.58 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 5c | 662.53$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 6c | 659.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.73 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 619.45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 10c | 514.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 9c | 452.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe06d…ac24backed Yes | 12c | 434.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -6.3wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 7c | 433.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.39 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9abc…d69dbacked Yes | 3c | 430.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 5c | 402.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 15c | 302.38$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes | 17c | 291.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 16c | 235.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes | 16c | 223.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes | 8c | 210.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.39 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2374…1246backed Yes | 6c | 201.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb62…d14fbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.27 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…152ebacked Yes | 6c | 194.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 17c | 178.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 13c | 171.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 21c | 115$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 18c | 107.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd54…5749backed Yes | 16c | 94.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…4d6bbacked No | 79c | 39.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 168 | 63.1%106 W · 62 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 79c | 20.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.