Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a803d153f0a75ed12a84c38a7483f185cdf7699dbab542274c94459f36fddf7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,310
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,750
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,310 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ff3…6f4fbacked Yes | 57c | 1,571$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$668.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 32c | 1,173$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.67 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 39c | 716.73$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.83 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 61c | 679.62$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.2 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ef…1310backed Yes | 30c | 605.72$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.72 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 43c | 552.33$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.33 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 450.99$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.02 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 53c | 440.81$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.36 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 56c | 391$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.98 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 79c | 381.03$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.01 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8295…610cbacked Yes | 63c | 363.44$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 38c | 357.64$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.43 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 356.7$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 77c | 326.23$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.63 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 76c | 318.05$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.86 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 43c | 311.97$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.95 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 62c | 297.39$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7331…bc39backed Yes | 20c | 275.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.2 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 22c | 270.08$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.7 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…0654backed Yes | 23c | 266.68$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…903dbacked Yes | 39c | 265.53$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.14 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 77c | 251.3$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.11 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 11c | 249.51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 74c | 241.54$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.24 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 212$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.58 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 24c | 209.5$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.52 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 208.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.72 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 51c | 200$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 13c | 195.47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 57c | 194.57$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.77 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 28c | 193.2$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.8 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 39c | 186.93$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.43 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 24c | 183.83$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.69 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 41c | 178.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.87 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 45c | 175.84$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.84 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 169.02$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.37 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 27c | 165$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.82 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 59c | 164.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.56 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 33c | 163.86$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.39 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 152.14$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 22c | 139.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.57 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe16…d380backed Yes | 71c | 139.32$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 138$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.88 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 23c | 137$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.49 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes | 48c | 131.04$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 130.06$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.3 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 64c | 130$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.41 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…e5babacked No | 58c | 129.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.83 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 128$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 47c | 127.04$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.04 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 121.79$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.78 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 65c | 120.47$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.38 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes | 45c | 119.91$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.55 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed No | 63c | 119.08$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.72 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 34c | 115.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.07 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 113.03$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 76c | 111.93$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes | 32c | 110$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.3 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +13.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 70c | 109.67$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.85 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 20c | 101.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.47 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…3fb7backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.05 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.72 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 51c | 99.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked Yes | 21c | 94.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.47 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 31c | 93.31$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.39 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 70c | 93.01$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.19 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 38c | 91.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.98 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2291…b0c9backed Yes | 55c | 90.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9762…73e0backed Yes | 52c | 90.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.81 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0754…a576backed Yes | 27c | 90$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.02 | 164 | 37.2%61 W · 103 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes | 20c | 88.58$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.66 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 83.66$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.17 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 33c | 81.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.31 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc527…773dbacked Yes | 64c | 78.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed No | 76c | 77.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.93 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 23c | 77.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b98…925ebacked Yes | 27c | 77.04$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.24 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked No | 67c | 75.97$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 32c | 75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.85 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 24c | 74.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 27c | 74.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.35 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f5…2260backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed No | 67c | 72.05$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 75c | 71.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 66c | 69.64$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 35c | 68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 55c | 64.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.99 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429c…5f41backed Yes | 49c | 61.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…b34dbacked No | 44c | 59.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +76%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 53c | 58$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 22c | 57.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x997e…7e58backed Yes | 73c | 56.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…c853backed Yes | 33c | 55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.06 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1508…0648backed No | 74c | 54.3$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.