TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$35,310
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$40,750

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,310 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 182 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ff3…6f4fbacked Yes57c1,571$903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No32c1,173$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.674,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No39c716.73$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.831,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes61c679.62$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.295933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes30c605.72$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.725427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes43c552.33$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.3317135.1%60 W · 111 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No65c450.99$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.022,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No53c440.81$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.363,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No56c391$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.985,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes79c381.03$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0125839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8295…610cbacked Yes63c363.44$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.99742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-19.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No38c357.64$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.4388628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes23c356.7$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.4817,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5968…3fc4backed No77c326.23$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.6342160.6%255 W · 166 L-25.0wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-11.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No76c318.05$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.862,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes43c311.97$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.9592028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No62c297.39$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1841,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes20c275.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.29425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes22c270.08$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.756434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9999…0654backed Yes23c266.68$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.251225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb527…903dbacked Yes39c265.53$103 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.142326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-33.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No77c251.3$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.112,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No11c249.51$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.221,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No74c241.54$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.242,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No46c212$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.584,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes24c209.5$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.5220534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes26c208.78$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.729,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes51c200$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$991,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No13c195.47$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.472,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes57c194.57$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.7723436.3%85 W · 149 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes28c193.2$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.874338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes39c186.93$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.4330131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes24c183.83$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.691,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes41c178.18$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.8756543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5278…5306backed Yes45c175.84$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8414941.6%62 W · 87 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No22c169.02$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.377,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes27c165$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.8239427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No59c164.83$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.564,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes33c163.86$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.391,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No70c152.14$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.429,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes22c139.97$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.571,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe16…d380backed Yes71c139.32$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.262245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No75c138$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.883,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes23c137$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.491,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes48c131.04$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.783145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No76c130.06$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.32,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes64c130$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.4120144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…e5babacked No58c129.93$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.835158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No77c129.87$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10042976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No34c128$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.12,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a75…ff13backed Yes47c127.04$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.042634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No75c121.79$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7899963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes65c120.47$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.381,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15e1…1b3dbacked Yes45c119.91$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.551952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x87d8…ccf3backed No63c119.08$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.726233.9%21 W · 41 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes34c115.31$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.0712941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No77c113.03$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.442,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes76c111.93$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.6927079.3%214 W · 56 L+52.5wins+0.19per pick60cpaid+30.3%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0xdaaf…051bbacked Yes32c110$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.313160.3%79 W · 52 L+13.9wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+22.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc323…4408backed No70c109.67$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8533567.5%226 W · 109 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-3.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes20c101.47$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.479425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1464…3fb7backed Yes46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$543020%6 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1941…deeabacked Yes29c100$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.051,07236.6%392 W · 680 L+25.9wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4495…1316backed No61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.725944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No51c99.97$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9941767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2510…b91bbacked Yes21c94.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.478545.9%39 W · 46 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14da…0af1backed Yes31c93.31$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.3911926.1%31 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No70c93.01$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1938258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes38c91.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.9818534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2291…b0c9backed Yes55c90.88$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.71333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-39.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9762…73e0backed Yes52c90.73$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.811136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick47cpaid+10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0754…a576backed Yes27c90$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.0216437.2%61 W · 103 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3016…f1fcbacked Yes20c88.58$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.666016.7%10 W · 50 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+19.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No76c83.66$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.1798571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes33c81.45$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3134846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No16c80$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.921,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc527…773dbacked Yes64c78.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.52757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+26.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6de9…a8e5backed No76c77.97$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.9320161.7%124 W · 77 L-10.1wins-0.05per pick67cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x942d…278ebacked Yes23c77.9$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.7643430.9%134 W · 300 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+78.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b98…925ebacked Yes27c77.04$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2413842.8%59 W · 79 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+164.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6ec8…99d2backed No65c76.92$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5083360.7%506 W · 327 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No67c75.97$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.7931649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b50…c9babacked Yes32c75$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8545148.6%219 W · 232 L+21.0wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes24c74.8$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.52,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes27c74.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.3511546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f5…2260backed Yes27c74.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.07728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed No67c72.05$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2723035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No75c71.12$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3997570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d02…704cbacked Yes50c70$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3532132.7%105 W · 216 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No66c69.64$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.2335058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes35c68$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9299949.5%495 W · 504 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes55c64.18$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9927648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x429c…5f41backed Yes49c61.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0210745.8%49 W · 58 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x973e…15c2backed No78c60$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.517364.7%112 W · 61 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick71cpaid-10.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e20…b34dbacked No44c59.24$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+76%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No53c58$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.5239157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes22c57.67$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0959125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x997e…7e58backed Yes73c56.58$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.432744.4%12 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.13per pick57cpaid-39.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a04…c853backed Yes33c55$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.063450%17 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1508…0648backed No74c54.3$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-29.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.