TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$38,583
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$36,559

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,583 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8103…23a1backed Yes5c1,599$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.1657614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes16c1,496$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.3292028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes16c1,132$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.8834624.3%84 W · 262 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked No61c944.91$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.888016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes11c890.2$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.215717.2%27 W · 130 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes15c805$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3295933.5%321 W · 638 L+28.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbee3…993bbacked Yes5c678.06$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes10c653.8$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.8186420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked Yes2c600.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3931649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xef22…441dbacked Yes4c451.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8710053%53 W · 47 L+20.3wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+86.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xc944…1686backed Yes13c406.98$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0734533%114 W · 231 L+20.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes21c386.02$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1688628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes40c379.73$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.892,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fd9…a49ebacked Yes39c349.24$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.23435.3%12 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No79c332$261 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.384,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd251…4d37backed Yes12c315$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.51,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes49c314.78$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.4365043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes42c310.82$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.212,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No70c304.84$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.472,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc243…5e94backed No59c301.9$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.8926067.3%175 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36da…907bbacked No58c285.57$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.948239%32 W · 50 L-5.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9999…0654backed Yes26c272.64$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.651225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-34%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes40c240$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.921236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes5c239.49$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4722945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes10c235.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.051,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes12c235.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.522,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x906f…371abacked No59c227.66$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.932,49569.9%1,744 W · 751 L+80.3wins+0.03per pick67cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes40c224.5$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.7217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3738…ed32backed Yes15c192$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6120144.3%89 W · 112 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes17c191.99$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5225839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f60…026abacked No55c190$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.599963.5%634 W · 365 L-3.0wins0.00per pick64cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No72c182.34$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.291,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes15c180.64$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.11,86123.8%443 W · 1,418 L+47.9wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes17c164.23$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.161,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No60c163.31$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.322,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a75…ff13backed Yes18c163$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302634.6%9 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-24.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes21c160.6$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb7…91c4backed No74c159.48$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.994571.1%32 W · 13 L+5.1wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+9.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5278…5306backed Yes29c158.18$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0114941.6%62 W · 87 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes16c157.47$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.287,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes40c143.41$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6516046.3%74 W · 86 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes25c140.71$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.829634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3271…cd33backed Yes13c140$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1813531.1%42 W · 93 L+8.7wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes38c135.5$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0345238.5%174 W · 278 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes15c121.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.772,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes43c119.44$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4674338.2%284 W · 459 L+17.8wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed Yes40c114.16$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5642754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x080e…da87backed Yes32c109.06$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3518534.6%64 W · 121 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes39c107.78$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.920534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes24c103.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2513423.1%31 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No79c101.27$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.563,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No80c100$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2041767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbad1…8151backed Yes40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-22.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.529732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4495…1316backed Yes22c100$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.655944.1%26 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ef…4b15backed Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3712941.9%54 W · 75 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes17c99.98$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1739427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes41c99.97$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.9911337.2%42 W · 71 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+21.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes24c96.86$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No59c90.28$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.7997570.6%688 W · 287 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No78c90$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.13,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a87…a55abacked Yes42c88.7$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.951,11235.1%390 W · 722 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b13…62d3backed Yes45c83.34$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.191,05231.2%328 W · 724 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No71c79.94$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.944,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b2b…4e2fbacked Yes21c78$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.324126.8%11 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes20c75.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3156434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd43e…3604backed Yes27c74.65$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3351553.6%276 W · 239 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9686…1701backed Yes20c71.15$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1435133.6%118 W · 233 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae47…638dbacked No60c70.67$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.6252571.2%374 W · 151 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No73c69.82$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.139159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes31c65.52$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6be…cbf7backed Yes18c65.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.88333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+119.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc24f…81d3backed No61c63.32$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8398571%699 W · 286 L+5.7wins+0.01per pick70cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8842…dfa7backed Yes44c63.04$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8945236.5%165 W · 287 L+20.0wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa631…7651backed Yes20c61.32$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210225.5%26 W · 76 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes23c58.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5261629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b18…2639backed Yes42c58.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8443842%184 W · 254 L-14.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No59c58.46$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.9756543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ead…f333backed Yes41c57.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.784531.1%14 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No79c57.87$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2943859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed No60c56.99$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.0319353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c15…c2bfbacked Yes20c56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-40.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No71c55.26$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.2435058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x53bc…be7cbacked No61c54.69$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.4162770.5%442 W · 185 L-0.2wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No76c53$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.4838258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes47c52.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258446.4%39 W · 45 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes31c51.85$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0964333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes41c51.46$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.294066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2a…7e54backed No58c51.39$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.393850%19 W · 19 L-4.4wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-26.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No74c50$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.924,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Yes41c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3434934.1%119 W · 230 L-1.5wins0.00per pick35cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc603…e174backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+50.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…7279backed Yes37c50$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+19.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe63…2de4backed Yes41c48.74$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011546.1%53 W · 62 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd09a…a603backed Yes42c47.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2011436.8%42 W · 72 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-13%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes42c47.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209425.5%24 W · 70 L-7.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-24.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes25c47.44$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.049,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7de…93c0backed Yes42c47.38$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf590…303cbacked No72c46.88$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.3112762.2%79 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.