Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28d8e5fc8f8ab0d6794047c9ead1270312a8aa471c9ca5fe80c9c2b808e6b7db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 5c | 1,599$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 16c | 1,496$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.32 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 16c | 1,132$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.88 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked No | 61c | 944.91$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.88 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 11c | 890.2$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 15c | 805$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.32 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbee3…993bbacked Yes | 5c | 678.06$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 10c | 653.8$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.81 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0081…947bbacked Yes | 2c | 600.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +17.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 4c | 451.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 13c | 406.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 21c | 386.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 379.73$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.89 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…a49ebacked Yes | 39c | 349.24$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.2 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 332$261 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.38 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 12c | 315$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 49c | 314.78$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.43 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 42c | 310.82$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.21 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 70c | 304.84$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.47 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed No | 59c | 301.9$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.89 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36da…907bbacked No | 58c | 285.57$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.94 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…0654backed Yes | 26c | 272.64$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.65 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 40c | 240$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 5c | 239.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 10c | 235.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 235.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 59c | 227.66$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.93 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 40c | 224.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 15c | 192$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9c…e014backed Yes | 17c | 191.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 258 | 39.9%103 W · 155 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 55c | 190$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 72c | 182.34$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 180.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 17c | 164.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 60c | 163.31$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.32 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…ff13backed Yes | 18c | 163$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 160.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb7…91c4backed No | 74c | 159.48$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 45 | 71.1%32 W · 13 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 29c | 158.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.01 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 157.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes | 40c | 143.41$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.65 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 25c | 140.71$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.82 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3271…cd33backed Yes | 13c | 140$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 38c | 135.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.03 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 15c | 121.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 43c | 119.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 40c | 114.16$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.56 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x080e…da87backed Yes | 32c | 109.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 185 | 34.6%64 W · 121 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 39c | 107.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes | 24c | 103.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 134 | 23.1%31 W · 103 L | -11.0wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad1…8151backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a88…f471backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 297 | 32.3%96 W · 201 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4495…1316backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ef…4b15backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 129 | 41.9%54 W · 75 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 41c | 99.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 96.86$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 59c | 90.28$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.79 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 78c | 90$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 42c | 88.7$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 45c | 83.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 71c | 79.94$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2b…4e2fbacked Yes | 21c | 78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 20c | 75.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd43e…3604backed Yes | 27c | 74.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 515 | 53.6%276 W · 239 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed Yes | 20c | 71.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 60c | 70.67$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 73c | 69.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.1 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 31c | 65.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6be…cbf7backed Yes | 18c | 65.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +119.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 61c | 63.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 44c | 63.04$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa631…7651backed Yes | 20c | 61.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 102 | 25.5%26 W · 76 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 23c | 58.78$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 42c | 58.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 59c | 58.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.97 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ead…f333backed Yes | 41c | 57.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 79c | 57.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…e572backed No | 60c | 56.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 193 | 53.9%104 W · 89 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c15…c2bfbacked Yes | 20c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 71c | 55.26$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 61c | 54.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 76c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10b…d88dbacked Yes | 47c | 52.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 31c | 51.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked Yes | 41c | 51.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…7e54backed No | 58c | 51.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc603…e174backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed Yes | 41c | 48.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bea…c1f5backed Yes | 42c | 47.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 25.5%24 W · 70 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 47.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7de…93c0backed Yes | 42c | 47.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…303cbacked No | 72c | 46.88$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 127 | 62.2%79 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.