TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 11?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$65,172
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,037

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $65,172 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5f05…a70fbacked Yes0c5,136$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1513423.1%31 W · 103 L-11.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes12c2,496$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.9192028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes1c1,586$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8986420.1%174 W · 690 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-25.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes7c1,359$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9542130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9c…e014backed Yes12c1,129$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.7325839.9%103 W · 155 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…23a1backed Yes3c1,112$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.357614.9%86 W · 490 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ebb…405abacked Yes2c901.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9379040.9%323 W · 467 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52ef…1310backed Yes10c622.57$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.965427.8%15 W · 39 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14da…0af1backed Yes15c607.89$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5911926.1%31 W · 88 L-6.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bee…7e78backed Yes3c565.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.551,07623.5%253 W · 823 L+69.1wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+14.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No77c477.79$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.422,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes38c455.7$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.284037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-26.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes5c384.21$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5617,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No75c328.99$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.653,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No78c321.3$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.061,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes30c320.03$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1111438.6%44 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No77c310$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.744,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No73c307.93$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.034,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe16…d380backed Yes13c300$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-28.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7331…bc39backed Yes28c279.8$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.599425.5%24 W · 70 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x198e…ede0backed Yes10c249.8$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5156434.6%195 W · 369 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a88…f471backed Yes22c240.93$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.229732.3%96 W · 201 L+0.9wins0.00per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes7c238.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4453437.3%199 W · 335 L-29.9wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef22…441dbacked Yes27c216.02$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3710053%53 W · 47 L+20.3wins+0.20per pick33cpaid+86.2%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x2f46…76f5backed Yes27c201.5$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5530131.9%96 W · 205 L+7.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No75c199$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.393,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ad2…9403backed Yes30c193.68$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.83425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-68.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7231…5afebacked Yes18c190.02$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.419634.4%33 W · 63 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes13c174.3$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.841046.8%192 W · 218 L+57.4wins+0.14per pick33cpaid+58.9%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0xe272…ac63backed Yes19c170.4$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6120534.1%70 W · 135 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No80c170$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.075,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e3e…ce36backed Yes29c150$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.581827.8%5 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.12per pick39cpaid-33.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9ea2…665abacked Yes17c149.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9939427.4%108 W · 286 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe06d…ac24backed Yes36c140.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504032.5%13 W · 27 L-6.3wins-0.16per pick48cpaid-43.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xbad0…a6e2backed Yes28c130$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.273145.2%14 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes28c129.95$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1419848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed No68c125.06$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.2988628.9%256 W · 630 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-41.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa20c…451abacked Yes17c112.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.128016.3%13 W · 67 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes39c111.21$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.534846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes13c108.39$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.084,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6973…b296backed Yes24c107.71$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.8513728.5%39 W · 98 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+52.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes14c102.75$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1427421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.11,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a19…1e2ebacked No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3541767.9%283 W · 134 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5235…43a8backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7624539.6%97 W · 148 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes14c99.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.321,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No76c99.97$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3eb…b529backed Yes15c98.53$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4361629.4%181 W · 435 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No72c88.97$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.14,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No70c87.71$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.651,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdba1…8239backed No80c84.68$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2512853.9%69 W · 59 L+10.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes23c84$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1570133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57ce…d8e2backed Yes25c79.6$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208234.1%28 W · 54 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-16.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No78c79.18$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.7235058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No75c78.16$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.761,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac16…4f44backed Yes30c76.71$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0123035.7%82 W · 148 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8bca…e136backed Yes17c75.05$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0644536.2%161 W · 284 L+13.0wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes33c70$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9324542.9%105 W · 140 L+5.9wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc120…a7e3backed No77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.81,29954.1%703 W · 596 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes28c58.86$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4727648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No77c57.6$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4444659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0081…947bbacked No68c55.63$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.5531649.7%157 W · 159 L+17.5wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-3.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No78c54.23$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1339157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ed0…25afbacked Yes39c51.18$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204553.3%24 W · 21 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes29c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4544945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2328…e304backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153933.3%13 W · 26 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x182f…de4fbacked Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.052050%10 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e13…e968backed No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.453633.3%12 W · 24 L-5.6wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-38.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5201…34c3backed Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156349.2%31 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc16…d090backed Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69fd…b2f0backed No62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.92231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e2a…debfbacked No62c49.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.251747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a43…26babacked Yes36c49.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.859346.2%43 W · 50 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c1c…25f0backed Yes40c49.62$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209239.1%36 W · 56 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x802d…e5babacked No68c47.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.265158.8%30 W · 21 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4230…152ebacked Yes23c47.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115032%16 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-33.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7248…90d9backed Yes30c46.63$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.765865.5%38 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No71c43.95$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7943859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2aa…3e28backed Yes39c42.9$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.95959.3%35 W · 24 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes36c42$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9940739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes31c38.91$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1722932.3%74 W · 155 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c47…79f8backed Yes33c38.88$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8564333.4%215 W · 428 L+14.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf57d…bf12backed Yes28c35.94$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6be…cbf7backed Yes33c35.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+119.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No71c34.42$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.0488973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ea…7ef6backed No66c31.49$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6511670.7%82 W · 34 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick70cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ef…caabbacked Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.642544%11 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No63c29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7316456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No80c27.27$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4839159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No73c25.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.741,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No77c25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.754,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07e9…15dcbacked No67c25$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.263756.8%21 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick60cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c8…80f8backed No71c23$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6639158.1%227 W · 164 L-1.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x194b…e572backed No76c22.3$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.3419353.9%104 W · 89 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x754b…d06abacked No72c20.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.7221272.6%154 W · 58 L+22.8wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+21.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9acf…0cc2backed No72c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.722945.4%104 W · 125 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No71c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.1838258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc69a…4d6bbacked No60c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.2116863.1%106 W · 62 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No74c17.96$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.622,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe32a…a7f9backed No74c15.5$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.964564.4%29 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick66cpaid+1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.