Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99f69ded97db07bb5566f335f962ce801933313bbed9e11577ddbded9c262210
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 4c | 2,437$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.61 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 79c | 1,401$1,112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.16 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 3c | 921.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 4c | 635.64$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7231…5afebacked Yes | 20c | 561.86$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.11 | 96 | 34.4%33 W · 63 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…9eedbacked Yes | 5c | 499.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.94 | 157 | 17.2%27 W · 130 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9999…0654backed Yes | 11c | 451.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked No | 78c | 399.98$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 26c | 372.11$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.75 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb527…903dbacked Yes | 6c | 356.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 19c | 344.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 6c | 257.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c15…c2bfbacked Yes | 23c | 219.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 74c | 192.54$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 177.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…393ebacked No | 79c | 163.9$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.18 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 69cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9107…b6e0backed No | 80c | 154.56$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.35 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 27c | 143.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3e…ce36backed Yes | 17c | 140.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 22c | 138.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 114.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 101.25$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.47 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbad1…8151backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 23c | 99.98$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 79c | 99.35$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 98.05$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 71c | 95.57$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa62f…cbacbacked Yes | 24c | 84.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 36cpaid | +194.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 80.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 77c | 78.01$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 27c | 72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f3c…758dbacked Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbcac…2ae8backed Yes | 31c | 63.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 75c | 61.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 74c | 61.27$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2b…2030backed Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 74c | 56.06$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.47 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd09a…a603backed Yes | 27c | 55.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 36.8%42 W · 72 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75f…a311backed No | 73c | 53.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7112…6d11backed No | 79c | 50.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 349 | 70.2%245 W · 104 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 28c | 49.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 44.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 75c | 43.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…5f49backed No | 76c | 43$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 24c | 42.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fec…bc11backed Yes | 24c | 41.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 73c | 30.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd912…32a2backed No | 78c | 28.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 73c | 22.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 71c | 22.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.54 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2510…b91bbacked No | 72c | 20.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 68c | 16.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2c…5339backed No | 72c | 16.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a17…c24fbacked No | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in London be 10°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on May 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on May 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.