TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Marlins vs. Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Marlinsof Marlins, Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$115,615
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$113,447

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,615 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 110 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4dae…f8b2backed Orioles61c30,051$18,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,260.9113352.6%70 W · 63 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Marlins39c4,311$1,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,622.352,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bc…e520backed Marlins38c4,000$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,479.9627953.4%149 W · 130 L+16.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Marlins72c3,989$2,856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.4386751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03cd…9fdabacked Orioles62c3,246$2,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,012.5231346.6%146 W · 167 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Marlins37c3,009$1,105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,904.521,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Orioles62c2,947$1,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,823.9832852.4%172 W · 156 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins40c2,816$1,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,697.872,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5327…3b80backed Orioles60c2,685$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6003545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+20.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Orioles60c2,067$1,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,240.3938047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f93…e313backed Orioles59c2,000$1,180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,18015543.2%67 W · 88 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Marlins39c1,896$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.559,81946.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L+39.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Marlins38c1,619$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.7571751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Orioles59c1,599$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$947.2354048.3%261 W · 279 L-12.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Orioles61c1,583$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$958.091,20344.2%532 W · 671 L+20.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Orioles41c1,460$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.8617927.9%50 W · 129 L-15.3wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-50.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Marlins42c1,396$582 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.2997950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Orioles61c1,220$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.243654.8%239 W · 197 L+8.6wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f82…9ae1backed Orioles43c1,163$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50023048.7%112 W · 118 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Orioles61c1,020$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$620.4395950.1%480 W · 479 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f2…0659backed Marlins38c999.99$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$624.994252.4%22 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Marlins37c977.1$365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612.111,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x95ec…4b7ebacked Marlins78c841.56$654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.5638743.2%167 W · 220 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1578…fa2cbacked Orioles61c727.27$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4462152.4%11 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6d7…b646backed Orioles35c710$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.518236.3%66 W · 116 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Marlins50c623.38$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.46,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1d4…64aebacked Marlins41c567.07$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.572100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+124%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3010…a27cbacked Marlins38c523.72$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.810719.6%21 W · 86 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bbd…606cbacked Marlins40c504.78$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.949237%34 W · 58 L-5.1wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Marlins39c500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30531145.7%142 W · 169 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd28e…aae3backed Marlins38c479$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.9844443%191 W · 253 L+21.1wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Marlins44c453.89$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.8995930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Orioles4c450$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185862%12 W · 574 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Marlins39c449.56$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.231,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ceb…b516backed Marlins39c417$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.3711961.3%73 W · 46 L+9.8wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Marlins61c409.84$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.841,21540.5%492 W · 723 L-32.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Orioles60c330.67$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.499149.9%495 W · 496 L-10.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf744…7392backed Orioles64c312.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018155.8%101 W · 80 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5ccf…c116backed Marlins43c305.93$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.389745.4%44 W · 53 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Marlins39c300$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1833,30346.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x460a…d738backed Marlins39c256.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.456351%287 W · 276 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Marlins41c256.1$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.199951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Marlins41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.92,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Marlins41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.92,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e12…7348backed Marlins41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.938455.7%214 W · 170 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Marlins41c242.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.3814753.7%79 W · 68 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Marlins40c222.56$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.374,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Orioles6c213$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.788762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Marlins39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1221,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88c4…fbf0backed Marlins39c200$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12217139.2%67 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Marlins66c193.69$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.6270841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Marlins39c186.47$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.7519742.6%84 W · 113 L-13.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Marlins39c180.34$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.751,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x670d…fbe9backed Marlins40c170$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1026747.8%32 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Orioles61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6edc…18cebacked Orioles62c162.47$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10031356.2%176 W · 137 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Orioles62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021242.5%90 W · 122 L-13.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Orioles62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10057545.9%264 W · 311 L+0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39d1…5129backed Orioles15c159.05$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.381553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x298c…3e58backed Marlins40c150$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$906946.4%32 W · 37 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51e6…622ebacked Marlins41c141.46$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.46425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-39%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05a4…1e85backed Marlins39c135.97$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.3880680%645 W · 161 L+173.6wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+34.7%equal weight73+0.21 edge/pick
0xe98b…780dbacked Marlins42c135.71$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7115151%77 W · 74 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Marlins40c130.5$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.370946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Marlins39c125.2$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.371,40848.8%687 W · 721 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabf6…129dbacked Marlins40c125$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7517037.6%64 W · 106 L-10.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x59ee…7ad7backed Orioles10c110.64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.384610.9%5 W · 41 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick9cpaid-13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1781…a0ecbacked Marlins41c110$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.865549.3%323 W · 332 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Orioles61c110$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.12,05053.8%1,103 W · 947 L+33.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Marlins39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6126650.8%135 W · 131 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Marlins39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Orioles61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6113359.4%79 W · 54 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc09…9d12backed Orioles61c100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618253.7%44 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9587…cd8ebacked Marlins39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6131244.2%138 W · 174 L+11.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11d5…4d77backed Orioles60c91.67$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x198b…9973backed Marlins40c82.22$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.0412045.8%55 W · 65 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Orioles61c81.97$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5d6…1733backed Orioles56c80.23$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4512940.3%52 W · 77 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb58…0e11backed Marlins41c78.34$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.442955%236 W · 193 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-4.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8b5…5414backed Marlins41c75.59$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.67452.7%39 W · 35 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Orioles61c65.57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4063052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a33…83abbacked Marlins42c59.64$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.591861.1%11 W · 7 L+3.2wins+0.18per pick43cpaid+64.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0229…ea6cbacked Marlins80c55$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1141747.2%197 W · 220 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6111…c02fbacked Marlins43c54.69$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.45939%23 W · 36 L-2.9wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-22.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bc9…7e5bbacked Marlins41c53.66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.6618951.3%97 W · 92 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Orioles60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3092754.9%509 W · 418 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Marlins40c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe57f…ad35backed Orioles60c50$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb3cc…a23abacked Marlins39c49.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4950447.2%238 W · 266 L+29.6wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xcdd4…7696backed Orioles63c47.62$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303458.8%20 W · 14 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x974f…637bbacked Marlins40c47.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.53151.6%16 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf62…227dbacked Marlins41c42.49$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0718850%94 W · 94 L+12.5wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+16%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8cb6…773dbacked Marlins41c41.77$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.776753.7%36 W · 31 L+6.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb755…acbabacked Marlins62c40.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.32580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+31.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa324…1b67backed Orioles59c40$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.71136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.20per pick56cpaid-39.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2cd3…1174backed Orioles45c39.39$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5419052.6%100 W · 90 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Marlins39c36$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.961,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaef…472abacked Marlins43c35.68$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.2732754.7%179 W · 148 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2719…28ddbacked Orioles41c34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0425364.4%163 W · 90 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Marlins39c32$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5250843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.