Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb0cc9ead36ccf7614fddf0b4571c0c56a6077ca61545ad1c371d9519359260b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,615
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 622.58$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.1 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 454.09$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.39 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 11c | 431$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 43c | 340.69$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146f…9410backed Yes | 68c | 337.54$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.26 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 51c | 318.72$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.72 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 5c | 254.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 49c | 249.37$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.66 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 17c | 239.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d8…56bbbacked No | 26c | 230.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.23 | 147 | 52.4%77 W · 70 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 51c | 222.07$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.35 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 20c | 183.44$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.78 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 173.47$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 51c | 171$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.79 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 7c | 158.92$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 40c | 157$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.45 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 45c | 125$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.31 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 120$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 47c | 115.22$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 58c | 110.24$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 69c | 109.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 105.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 98.1$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 48c | 91.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 56c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed Yes | 39c | 83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.52 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…bf31backed No | 61c | 82.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 49c | 81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 44c | 80.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.71 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 56c | 80.1$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…5e94backed No | 66c | 75.94$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 45c | 66.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.7 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 34c | 64.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9eb…e3e8backed No | 55c | 62.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 88 | 71.6%63 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 52c | 53.96$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.24 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 46c | 52.44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 51c | 52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x987f…b37dbacked Yes | 36c | 51.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 101 | 33.7%34 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…b109backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 48.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 47c | 47.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 50c | 45.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 48c | 44.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 52c | 44.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 38c | 43$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed Yes | 49c | 42.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 51c | 40.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.89 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 50c | 36.34$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 51c | 35.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 51c | 34.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 50c | 33.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 51c | 32.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 60c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 66c | 31.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 48c | 31.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.21 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 40c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 69c | 28.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…78d8backed Yes | 51c | 27.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 249 | 42.6%106 W · 143 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 73c | 25.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 60c | 22.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 51c | 22.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 57c | 22.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 52c | 21.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Yes | 49c | 20.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.65 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 73c | 20.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Yes | 50c | 20.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 190 | 42.6%81 W · 109 L | -11.9wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 58c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 70c | 15.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.