MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb29703f46b13ebe4211b1bbe1a21324c7d6c3d063e6f748f55c924e1c2eac7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Cincinnati Reds, Washington Nationals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,184
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Cincinnati Reds | 29c | 164.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 532 | 38.5%205 W · 327 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Washington Nationals | 71c | 139.13$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.37 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 121$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 2,329 | 49.8%1,160 W · 1,169 L | +41.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…44c3backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 111.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 108.11$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 92.39$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.26 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 81.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1f…ab66backed Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 64.61$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.26 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Washington Nationals | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 60.61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.61 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 38.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 32.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Washington Nationals | 65c | 30.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x858c…84b1backed Washington Nationals | 64c | 21.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Nationals | 77c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.