MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa342671e5f752dd18f259c4203a8ae4f56160fa5269c22f9c4d6e6749584c731
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,200
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 3,138$1,765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,764.93 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 2,670$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,707.57 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Washington Nationals | 55c | 2,108$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.99 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 1,792$932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 58c | 1,006$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.76 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 995$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.45 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 529.33$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.96 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 378.99$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.35 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 363.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.95 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 339$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.96 | 883 | 49.3%435 W · 448 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Washington Nationals | 45c | 293.65$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.63 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 114.75$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 89.59$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 331 | 48.6%161 W · 170 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 82.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.77 | 1,797 | 50.4%906 W · 891 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 81.48$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.11 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Washington Nationals | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 484 | 45.9%222 W · 262 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 67.25$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Cincinnati Reds | 59c | 65.64$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e96…33c9backed Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 62.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Washington Nationals | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 54.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.89 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 51.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 50.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 47.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 44.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Cincinnati Reds | 52c | 44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 43.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a3…d760backed Washington Nationals | 36c | 41.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 246 | 44.7%110 W · 136 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 27.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 328 | 46.6%153 W · 175 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 27.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 527 | 52.2%275 W · 252 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 26.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Washington Nationals | 71c | 25.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…5edbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 257 | 52.9%136 W · 121 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 24.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Washington Nationals | 46c | 24.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 570 | 58.4%333 W · 237 L | +27.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 23.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 23.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Washington Nationals | 68c | 19.6$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.