MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd285b930859f9d2cc03f20176963341f78eb19f2a6b6c9b974011c3028591a8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 32c | 4,493$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.93 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 62c | 3,233$2,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,228.54 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 2,660$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,298.33 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 43c | 1,900$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 64c | 1,738$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.33 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 79c | 1,495$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.32 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Under | 57c | 1,454$829 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.03 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 63c | 1,311$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.25 | 384 | 53.6%206 W · 178 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 34c | 1,126$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.77 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Under | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 136 | 64.7%88 W · 48 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Under | 63c | 960.59$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.42 | 508 | 56.9%289 W · 219 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 38c | 793.38$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.85 | 3,041 | 48%1,461 W · 1,580 L | -16.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 47c | 578.42$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.3 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Under | 63c | 396.83$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.83 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 63c | 322.57$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.9 | 1,240 | 58.1%721 W · 519 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…b21cbacked Under | 58c | 270.05$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.42 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 26c | 249.99$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 27c | 199$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.27 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 8c | 187$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 52c | 185.9$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1,194 | 29%346 W · 848 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Under | 62c | 161.28$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.87 | 437 | 57%249 W · 188 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Under | 63c | 161.28$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.67 | 583 | 58.5%341 W · 242 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 43c | 141.96$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.05 | 886 | 56.4%500 W · 386 L | +30.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed Over | 80c | 115$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Over | 50c | 114.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.44 | 269 | 62.1%167 W · 102 L | +44.2wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 73c | 109.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.21 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 65c | 107.46$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 105.48$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.51 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81a9…df08backed Under | 38c | 105$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5317…9a3bbacked Over | 38c | 96.4$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.96 | 153 | 40.5%62 W · 91 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Under | 63c | 95.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 1,026 | 58.1%596 W · 430 L | +18.9wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Under | 32c | 93.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.41 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 65c | 92.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 64c | 87.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.2 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…00b5backed Under | 34c | 79.39$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.53 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 64c | 76.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 65c | 74.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 425 | 51.8%220 W · 205 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Under | 57c | 56.33$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Under | 20c | 56.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Under | 20c | 56.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Under | 20c | 56.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.82 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 59c | 55.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Over | 68c | 53.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.08 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160c…473ebacked Over | 38c | 45.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0617…08d9backed Under | 31c | 34.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 75c | 31.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 62c | 31.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba0…0111backed Over | 38c | 30.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 52c | 30.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 595 | 34.5%205 W · 390 L | -22.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c52…99e1backed Over | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 49 | 75.5%37 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Under | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x624b…d3dbbacked Under | 61c | 24.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Under | 48c | 24.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f5…1b50backed Over | 73c | 20.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Under | 50c | 20.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Over | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cc94backed Under | 59c | 18.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Over | 64c | 17.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41c8…424fbacked Under | 63c | 16.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington NationalsWashington Nationals won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington NationalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.