MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb4104695105af096caa2288dd0579f3be698a9eadce397f0f1d99ebad842280
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Cincinnati Reds, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 2,179$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.88 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Athletics | 72c | 1,488$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.64 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Athletics | 53c | 990.43$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.18 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Athletics | 69c | 867.6$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.46 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 27c | 673.54$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.86 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Athletics | 35c | 624.28$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.68 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 59c | 605$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.9 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics | 22c | 512$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.27 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Athletics | 73c | 442.71$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.53 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1621…f040backed Cincinnati Reds | 3c | 398.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 61 | 4.9%3 W · 58 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cincinnati Reds | 27c | 359.74$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.13 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a7…418abacked Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.4wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Athletics | 76c | 340.46$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.78 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 323.55$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Athletics | 73c | 148.8$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.18 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Athletics | 74c | 121.05$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Athletics | 13c | 86.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Athletics | 73c | 74.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 406 | 58.4%237 W · 169 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Athletics | 73c | 74.4$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.09 | 552 | 59.6%329 W · 223 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Cincinnati Reds | 29c | 68.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.78 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…ae14backed Cincinnati Reds | 43c | 53.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23df…640abacked Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 50.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 400 | 48.5%194 W · 206 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 43.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Athletics | 62c | 38.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Athletics | 42c | 36.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d1…de26backed Athletics | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 110 | 60.9%67 W · 43 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 30.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Athletics | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4f…b174backed Athletics | 57c | 25.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 407 | 53.3%217 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Athletics | 57c | 23.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Athletics | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.