MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x34465cbe6997c3a5f6538461e893f0ae9fe1eeca31390e6ec13c09f702f85ac2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 65c | 9,598$6,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,227.92 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 41c | 2,668$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,081.57 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 40c | 2,500$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 2,494$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.2 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 2,304$1,383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,383.44 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 40c | 2,292$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,374.94 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 40c | 1,558$622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.72 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 21c | 1,313$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,037.27 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7a…f252backed Over | 51c | 942.33$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.74 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 21c | 803$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.37 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed Under | 4c | 700$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 40c | 399$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.4 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 22c | 328.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.21 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 40c | 300$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 40c | 275.02$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 62c | 258.41$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.35 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 61c | 234.02$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.52 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Under | 56c | 200$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 45c | 199.87$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 44c | 170.45$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765b…5043backed Under | 61c | 151.83$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 62c | 137.63$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.35 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Over | 21c | 114.29$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.29 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 40c | 112.72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.76 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe707…e0cfbacked Under | 62c | 100$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 138 | 64.5%89 W · 49 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 49c | 97.61$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Over | 62c | 91.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.91 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 48c | 88.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a6a…56bdbacked Over | 39c | 76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.37 | 133 | 45.9%61 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Over | 62c | 71.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 40c | 69.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.56 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 19c | 67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9732…cd57backed Under | 23c | 61.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 15cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 25c | 47.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Under | 44c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Over | 51c | 36.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 47c | 35.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 60c | 34.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 62c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 58c | 31.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 37c | 31.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Under | 63c | 31.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Over | 49c | 29.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.89 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Under | 66c | 24.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 53c | 20.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fa…581fbacked Over | 67c | 19.68$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 83 | 50.6%42 W · 41 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Over | 67c | 18.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5this page
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.