MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd99d0e38d9fb01aa830dc9db2c4f7e249b1c17599b7bee87f95223d7bd12ab91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,477
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,534
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,477 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 43c | 1,965$844 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.75 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 56c | 1,964$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.15 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e50…0ea8backed Under | 3c | 1,700$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 57 | 7%4 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 3cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…e6a6backed Under | 4c | 1,186$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.59 | 69 | 7.2%5 W · 64 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 56c | 1,108$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…4c4ebacked Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0160…c757backed Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 53 | 3.8%2 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e8…9490backed Under | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 0%0 W · 43 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…bd08backed Under | 48c | 881.06$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.91 | 1,137 | 42.6%484 W · 653 L | +10.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 45c | 678$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.1 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 52c | 356.18$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.96 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 12c | 344.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 45c | 258$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.1 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefd1…c520backed Over | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 225.16$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.21 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x796f…00f6backed Over | 70c | 201.38$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.08 | 272 | 44.9%122 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 24c | 183.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.62 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…2e8ebacked Under | 48c | 163.54$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 44c | 153$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.32 | 483 | 39.8%192 W · 291 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Over | 56c | 140.16$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x702e…ff44backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 264 | 44.3%117 W · 147 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Over | 62c | 98.41$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.69 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 30c | 70.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 50c | 52.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…65fcbacked Under | 44c | 47.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 118 | 52.5%62 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Over | 73c | 42.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…ac24backed Under | 43c | 32.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe90f…a908backed Over | 57c | 32.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 57c | 31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 63c | 30.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Over | 74c | 29.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 51c | 28.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 55c | 24.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 49c | 23.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 55c | 19.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.