Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb68e1252e68ac6ba3733c938861fdd426683bcc959e4b0784f9d38f1d8675f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,756
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a39…b0b9backed Under | 37c | 5,034$1,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,862.75 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 68c | 2,071$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.2 | 2,795 | 34.8%973 W · 1,822 L | -86.3wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 63c | 1,079$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.61 | 1,219 | 36.3%442 W · 777 L | -18.8wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 63c | 797.91$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.55 | 1,290 | 49.1%633 W · 657 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaedc…36c0backed Under | 10c | 497$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.7 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 63c | 355$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.35 | 1,222 | 45.3%553 W · 669 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 3c | 350.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 63c | 324$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.88 | 414 | 42.3%175 W · 239 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 40c | 182.37$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.27 | 2,434 | 37.3%909 W · 1,525 L | -9.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 7c | 174.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1,895 | 38.7%734 W · 1,161 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9950…1432backed Over | 62c | 174.55$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 62c | 152.09$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.69 | 851 | 42%357 W · 494 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 63c | 124.71$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.39 | 760 | 37.4%284 W · 476 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0c…10f2backed Over | 61c | 114.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 63c | 62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 1,793 | 54.8%983 W · 810 L | +11.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 308 | 51%157 W · 151 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…963ebacked Over | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Under | 39c | 39.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 277 | 37.9%105 W · 172 L | -17.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 38c | 37.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 636 | 49.5%315 W · 321 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c9…d8c1backed Over | 72c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.04 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +6.9wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8613…2f76backed Under | 42c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a3a…e85dbacked Under | 42c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x545d…70ffbacked Under | 37c | 32.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 38c | 30.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Under | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6a…6e97backed Under | 39c | 29.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 39c | 27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 331 | 42.9%142 W · 189 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed Over | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87d3…a568backed Over | 62c | 16.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: FC Viktoria Plzeň O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 5.5Under won
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Team to AdvanceFC Viktoria Plzeň won
- Spread: FC Viktoria Plzeň (-1.5)FC Viktoria Plzeň won
- Spread: FC Viktoria Plzeň (-2.5)FC Viktoria Plzeň won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)FC Viktoria Plzeň won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)FC Viktoria Plzeň won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.