Europa Conference League · resolved market
FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Team to Advance
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9e79e0478ac47f32fa48aedc24b7713f2eabba921125ce0542b3c7c466a1c01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Viktoria Plzeňof FC Viktoria Plzeň, FK Crvena zvezda
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,472
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x76bc…fccabacked FK Crvena zvezda | 12c | 2,240$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.01 | 79 | 32.9%26 W · 53 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…3e2dbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 2c | 1,455$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed FC Viktoria Plzeň | 8c | 1,329$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.62 | 473 | 42.1%199 W · 274 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed FC Viktoria Plzeň | 9c | 507$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.16 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ee…0e41backed FC Viktoria Plzeň | 8c | 390.08$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360.77 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd217…3555backed FC Viktoria Plzeň | 9c | 326.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.45per pick | 5cpaid | +405.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x033d…9831backed FC Viktoria Plzeň | 10c | 256.55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 7cpaid | +420.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…7633backed FC Viktoria Plzeň | 51c | 237.89$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.52 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +5.5wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed FC Viktoria Plzeň | 70c | 160.87$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.26 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f4…9ec5backed FK Crvena zvezda | 30c | 156.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 180 | 37.8%68 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05fe…358bbacked FC Viktoria Plzeň | 65c | 153.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.85 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked FC Viktoria Plzeň | 9c | 136$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.09 | 414 | 42.3%175 W · 239 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 54c | 117.79$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6058…5e02backed FK Crvena zvezda | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ad…089abacked FC Viktoria Plzeň | 48c | 99.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6994…fc1fbacked FC Viktoria Plzeň | 40c | 99.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9709…52abbacked FC Viktoria Plzeň | 67c | 99.99$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked FC Viktoria Plzeň | 79c | 79.23$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 838 | 45%377 W · 461 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked FK Crvena zvezda | 48c | 76.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 213 | 51.6%110 W · 103 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed FK Crvena zvezda | 43c | 74.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.99 | 206 | 46.1%95 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10af…2d06backed FC Viktoria Plzeň | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f5…1f57backed FC Viktoria Plzeň | 46c | 36.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5838…6a3abacked FC Viktoria Plzeň | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked FC Viktoria Plzeň | 80c | 16.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 1,104 | 45.4%501 W · 603 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Team to Advancethis page
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: FC Viktoria Plzeň O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 0.5Over won
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 2.5Over won
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 4.5Over won
- FC Viktoria Plzeň vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Viktoria Plzeň (-1.5)FC Viktoria Plzeň won
- Spread: FC Viktoria Plzeň (-2.5)FC Viktoria Plzeň won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-1.5)FC Viktoria Plzeň won
- Spread: FK Crvena zvezda (-2.5)FC Viktoria Plzeň won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.