Fifa International · resolved market
Mexico to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb8cf4d4950c1fb1566a3ac285420145448450206087d5ae4e6731fcd328167d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,768
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 46c | 11,933$5,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,387.83 | 2,603 | 37.8%984 W · 1,619 L | -40.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b10…acabbacked No | 53c | 8,611$4,564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,564.4 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +11.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 79c | 1,514$1,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.26 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 19c | 1,217$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.74 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed No | 56c | 1,027$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$579.58 | 1,702 | 36.7%625 W · 1,077 L | -31.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 54c | 856.13$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$458.06 | 176 | 29%51 W · 125 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked No | 54c | 800$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$432 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8833…3ea1backed No | 55c | 767$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.85 | 617 | 52%321 W · 296 L | -13.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 56c | 599.98$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.99 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f41…e6aebacked No | 52c | 501.06$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.29 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 53c | 458.99$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.27 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc2…a9ebbacked No | 53c | 311.32$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.39 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 15c | 300.78$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…5143backed No | 55c | 294.55$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 55c | 254.96$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.27 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 55c | 254.49$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.09 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 55c | 254.2$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.84 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 46c | 234$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.36 | 2,171 | 38.2%829 W · 1,342 L | -36.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 50c | 232.86$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.04 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 53c | 200.3$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 1,005 | 44.3%445 W · 560 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 48c | 199.77$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.82 | 3,077 | 47%1,447 W · 1,630 L | -11.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 47c | 177.52$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.83 | 3,213 | 47.2%1,517 W · 1,696 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbffd…b85dbacked No | 51c | 128.18$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.37 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…bfecbacked No | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 1,475 | 44.9%663 W · 812 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 52c | 84.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 3,286 | 49.2%1,616 W · 1,670 L | +6.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…6e47backed Yes | 44c | 79.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.04 | 150 | 42%63 W · 87 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…2896backed Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 182 | 31.9%58 W · 124 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…2bfabacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 140 | 30.7%43 W · 97 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 54c | 52.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.11 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed No | 54c | 50.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.34 | 534 | 48.5%259 W · 275 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed No | 54c | 49.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.34 | 481 | 54.9%264 W · 217 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 54c | 49.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.63 | 2,231 | 49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L | -21.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9516…0bcbbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 562 | 40.6%228 W · 334 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a13…588fbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…d820backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b89…87babacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6403…0318backed Yes | 48c | 31.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64f1…fc6ebacked Yes | 45c | 31.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1,293 | 53.6%693 W · 600 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed No | 53c | 20.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 548 | 59.5%326 W · 222 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 58c | 20.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mexico to win the second half?this page
- Czechia to win the second half?No won
- Czechia vs. Mexico: Second half draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.