NHL · resolved market
World Championships: Austria vs. Germany
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb914853c870178544d8bda4d5038a84dddf4b5fc43c48dfe0ce67b3138c4968
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Germanyof Austria, Germany
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Austria | 25c | 1,747$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.2 | 1,891 | 52.4%991 W · 900 L | +36.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9807…157bbacked Austria | 28c | 1,430$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.39 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Germany | 72c | 1,357$977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.91 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed Germany | 75c | 1,135$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.67 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Germany | 74c | 983.33$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.67 | 338 | 37.9%128 W · 210 L | -14.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab4d…3f0bbacked Germany | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Germany | 74c | 399.99$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 495 | 46.5%230 W · 265 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Austria | 26c | 385.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6318…46b1backed Austria | 23c | 340.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa5b…7650backed Austria | 26c | 288.38$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Austria | 14c | 280.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Germany | 75c | 210.06$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…4b05backed Austria | 26c | 180.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Austria | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb442…833ebacked Austria | 26c | 138.12$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…db07backed Germany | 78c | 128.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 242 | 59.1%143 W · 99 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699f…324cbacked Austria | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa7…e3d9backed Austria | 16c | 99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Austria | 21c | 92.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 200 | 59.5%119 W · 81 L | +19.6wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…4a07backed Austria | 22c | 90.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52c1…1084backed Austria | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3e…c5b5backed Germany | 73c | 68.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Germany | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Germany | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 181 | 49.7%90 W · 91 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0d…03c0backed Austria | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc506…4c2dbacked Austria | 24c | 41.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…27a0backed Austria | 25c | 41.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +4.6wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Germany | 75c | 41.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Austria | 30c | 40.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2533…5c8cbacked Austria | 26c | 40.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82e8…ffcabacked Austria | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Germany | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…d505backed Austria | 31c | 33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked Germany | 78c | 30.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ed…af7bbacked Germany | 75c | 30.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…75dcbacked Germany | 77c | 29.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +40%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Germany | 59c | 29.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Germany | 71c | 27.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 323 | 53.9%174 W · 149 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Germany | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed6b…7215backed Austria | 50c | 24.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c05…0ef6backed Germany | 50c | 24.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a24…78debacked Austria | 50c | 22.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…fcd4backed Germany | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1672…393cbacked Austria | 50c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd916…5940backed Germany | 50c | 21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Germany | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Germany | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823f…6a20backed Germany | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89c5…ce1bbacked Germany | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Germany | 79c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.57 | 314 | 48.7%153 W · 161 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.