CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb9f22b7356af83fe01abcdd99ec412c51335f4f74d0462830fbd8893eaaa745
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof illwill, RUSTEC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,369
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a05…cd14backed RUSTEC | 1c | 1,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked RUSTEC | 21c | 558.9$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.89 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…5c4cbacked illwill | 56c | 386.8$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.03 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked RUSTEC | 31c | 378.91$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.37 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed RUSTEC | 7c | 346$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed illwill | 64c | 346$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.1 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed RUSTEC | 6c | 308.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…0a38backed RUSTEC | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 414 | 36.7%152 W · 262 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc746…3943backed illwill | 76c | 292.46$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed RUSTEC | 48c | 287$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.54 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed RUSTEC | 39c | 258.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 474 | 47.5%225 W · 249 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked RUSTEC | 36c | 186.7$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.13 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7055…49bbbacked RUSTEC | 64c | 160.29$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed RUSTEC | 25c | 149.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 1,278 | 21.9%280 W · 998 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked illwill | 41c | 149.05$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.69 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3f1…5ea0backed illwill | 63c | 139$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked RUSTEC | 29c | 127$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed RUSTEC | 33c | 102$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 640 | 46.3%296 W · 344 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27d8…4cccbacked RUSTEC | 80c | 100.04$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc7…43e5backed illwill | 44c | 98.21$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -48%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed illwill | 34c | 93.15$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.48 | 2,626 | 30.9%812 W · 1,814 L | -105.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed RUSTEC | 27c | 92.22$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed RUSTEC | 35c | 90.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed RUSTEC | 21c | 85.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.98 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked illwill | 43c | 82.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.02 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…51b8backed illwill | 66c | 78.83$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked RUSTEC | 21c | 76.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…9335backed RUSTEC | 39c | 56.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 131 | 27.5%36 W · 95 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked RUSTEC | 36c | 49.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.67 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked illwill | 48c | 48.36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 600 | 32.3%194 W · 406 L | -49.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked illwill | 65c | 37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked illwill | 32c | 33.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed illwill | 56c | 32.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.61 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed illwill | 75c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 622 | 48.2%300 W · 322 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…377ebacked illwill | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 361 | 74.8%270 W · 91 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stageillwill won
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winnerillwill won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.