CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf4c7e475f89d5700b9a84c0b5efbc5107f38577e42b824f16538a73e8d2dc4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof illwill, RUSTEC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7e8…7953backed RUSTEC | 46c | 1,091$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 404 | 49.8%201 W · 203 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed illwill | 71c | 999.99$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 222 | 53.2%118 W · 104 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked RUSTEC | 25c | 863.78$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.26 | 1,302 | 41.2%536 W · 766 L | -50.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed RUSTEC | 17c | 743.41$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.67 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked illwill | 68c | 570.96$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.38 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed RUSTEC | 29c | 569.37$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.06 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed RUSTEC | 27c | 534.75$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.35 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed illwill | 69c | 518.42$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.18 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked illwill | 66c | 343.5$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.09 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…104abacked RUSTEC | 48c | 308.67$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.01 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…be7cbacked RUSTEC | 29c | 269.06$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.86 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed RUSTEC | 24c | 262.83$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 640 | 46.3%296 W · 344 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd0…1f67backed RUSTEC | 27c | 260$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed RUSTEC | 37c | 258$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.92 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…dc29backed illwill | 47c | 257$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.91 | 486 | 35.4%172 W · 314 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf0…72cebacked illwill | 69c | 223.85$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.62 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed RUSTEC | 14c | 220$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed RUSTEC | 26c | 208.52$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ba…fea9backed illwill | 75c | 206.59$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked illwill | 74c | 202.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 446 | 75.3%336 W · 110 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed illwill | 52c | 201.92$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5b…b455backed RUSTEC | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked illwill | 43c | 198.53$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.16 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed illwill | 59c | 189.93$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.35 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4fa…4a86backed RUSTEC | 21c | 189.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.86 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked illwill | 54c | 189.21$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…cbdcbacked illwill | 70c | 188.85$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 627 | 38.8%243 W · 384 L | -31.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed illwill | 73c | 183.96$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.49 | 622 | 48.2%300 W · 322 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf709…7697backed RUSTEC | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed RUSTEC | 51c | 172.2$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdb…8a82backed RUSTEC | 17c | 171$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…b03bbacked RUSTEC | 60c | 167$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.2 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked RUSTEC | 34c | 154.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 3,910 | 36.6%1,431 W · 2,479 L | -197.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…f655backed RUSTEC | 31c | 152.97$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 917 | 43.7%401 W · 516 L | -35.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked RUSTEC | 31c | 151.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.51 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2f20…f150backed RUSTEC | 17c | 120.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe83…82a8backed illwill | 71c | 119.98$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 107 | 75.7%81 W · 26 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed illwill | 60c | 115.77$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.31 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed illwill | 54c | 107.39$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 309 | 51.5%159 W · 150 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked RUSTEC | 34c | 103.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked RUSTEC | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf032…10d5backed RUSTEC | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed RUSTEC | 32c | 97.37$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed RUSTEC | 41c | 90.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 1,579 | 29.7%469 W · 1,110 L | -86.9wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7129…4517backed RUSTEC | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1,076 | 37.6%405 W · 671 L | +34.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0153…bad3backed illwill | 64c | 75$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed RUSTEC | 16c | 72.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -12.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked RUSTEC | 32c | 70.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 807 | 41.3%333 W · 474 L | -10.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked RUSTEC | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 1,352 | 52%703 W · 649 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed illwill | 69c | 65.84$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 593 | 43.2%256 W · 337 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefbc…b344backed RUSTEC | 50c | 64.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 405 | 42%170 W · 235 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed RUSTEC | 22c | 63.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 198 | 50.5%100 W · 98 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked illwill | 61c | 61.57$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…36b8backed illwill | 52c | 59.19$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.41 | 217 | 55.8%121 W · 96 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked illwill | 74c | 58.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked RUSTEC | 22c | 57.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…0813backed illwill | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 200 | 67%134 W · 66 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…1701backed illwill | 52c | 52.71$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29c…1e43backed RUSTEC | 38c | 52.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 236 | 54.7%129 W · 107 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed illwill | 48c | 50.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.37 | 380 | 37.4%142 W · 238 L | -14.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9051…32d2backed illwill | 79c | 50.36$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c7…5864backed RUSTEC | 60c | 50.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked illwill | 62c | 48.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 512 | 52.1%267 W · 245 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked illwill | 71c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da3…95a0backed illwill | 62c | 40.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…1e5bbacked illwill | 53c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 341 | 47.5%162 W · 179 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed illwill | 75c | 22.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 408 | 57.1%233 W · 175 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…7c12backed illwill | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 523 | 69.4%363 W · 160 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb41…b1adbacked illwill | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed illwill | 71c | 14.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 771 | 46%355 W · 416 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winnerillwill won
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winnerillwill won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.