CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc11e86b1ef3967c9d5cc5820639a8811dfe33b2a785965676e00588f22e7941
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- illwillof illwill, RUSTEC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7460…de6ebacked RUSTEC | 47c | 1,750$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$822.46 | 439 | 51.7%227 W · 212 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed illwill | 53c | 732.02$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.05 | 1,365 | 66.3%905 W · 460 L | +76.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed illwill | 61c | 504.51$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.27 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed illwill | 58c | 473.7$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.43 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked illwill | 53c | 468.8$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.38 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca6…6a20backed RUSTEC | 49c | 410.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 474 | 47.5%225 W · 249 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x949e…20afbacked RUSTEC | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 432 | 37.7%163 W · 269 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked illwill | 53c | 361.15$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.78 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5df…be7cbacked illwill | 53c | 303.99$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4711…ce32backed illwill | 56c | 260$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.4 | 97 | 36.1%35 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed illwill | 55c | 240.02$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.57 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -57%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed illwill | 53c | 198.11$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.11 | 1,319 | 44.2%583 W · 736 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea8…c8bdbacked illwill | 55c | 196.02$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.21 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed RUSTEC | 29c | 180.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 1,278 | 21.9%280 W · 998 L | -24.3wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d08…5d9fbacked illwill | 60c | 180$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa073…a3babacked illwill | 75c | 133.32$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1,117 | 68.6%766 W · 351 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked RUSTEC | 19c | 133$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed RUSTEC | 46c | 126.12$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 965 | 43.5%420 W · 545 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed RUSTEC | 35c | 126$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 2,362 | 46.6%1,100 W · 1,262 L | -53.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…e613backed RUSTEC | 52c | 118$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -46%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked RUSTEC | 24c | 115.21$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked RUSTEC | 36c | 107.79$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 4,691 | 43.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L | -83.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5672…7312backed RUSTEC | 50c | 99.02$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 622 | 48.2%300 W · 322 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf49a…8981backed RUSTEC | 41c | 88.34$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 191 | 42.4%81 W · 110 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed RUSTEC | 33c | 87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed RUSTEC | 28c | 82.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked RUSTEC | 28c | 64.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 600 | 32.3%194 W · 406 L | -49.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed RUSTEC | 21c | 56.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 5,287 | 31.3%1,657 W · 3,630 L | -383.3wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked RUSTEC | 28c | 55.91$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked RUSTEC | 26c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 2,473 | 34.6%855 W · 1,618 L | -188.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…8796backed RUSTEC | 44c | 49.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 282 | 54.6%154 W · 128 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed RUSTEC | 31c | 40.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked illwill | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.67 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed illwill | 59c | 39.65$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 408 | 57.1%233 W · 175 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77de…e67abacked RUSTEC | 29c | 35.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 526 | 45.1%237 W · 289 L | -20.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed illwill | 73c | 35.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8772…982dbacked illwill | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.33 | 137 | 53.3%73 W · 64 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed RUSTEC | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 700 | 42.3%296 W · 404 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…377ebacked illwill | 76c | 32.2$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 361 | 74.8%270 W · 91 L | +13.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe83…82a8backed illwill | 78c | 25.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 107 | 75.7%81 W · 26 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…f718backed illwill | 53c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 286 | 51%146 W · 140 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bc…7e01backed illwill | 74c | 21.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8714…c965backed illwill | 53c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.58 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6efa…a0a7backed RUSTEC | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 302 | 47%142 W · 160 L | -11.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked RUSTEC | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3,202 | 45.6%1,459 W · 1,743 L | -79.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed illwill | 70c | 18.47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 1,046 | 45%471 W · 575 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stageillwill won
- Counter-Strike: illwill vs RUSTEC - Map 1 Winnerillwill won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.