NFL · resolved market
Big Game: First Team To Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb9fabc03551937b244f2e6f664598d4cf6bba807caf225b4a438fcdb7d16c35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SEAof NE, SEA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,810
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1461…30a1backed NE | 45c | 7,000$3,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,176.8 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe02c…5d08backed SEA | 74c | 5,405$3,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,418.47 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18e9…04ddbacked NE | 0c | 4,551$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed SEA | 54c | 3,993$2,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,837.81 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed SEA | 56c | 1,253$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.13 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed NE | 2c | 1,036$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd5…11bbbacked NE | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae5…910abacked NE | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed NE | 31c | 792$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.46 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb876…a86bbacked NE | 46c | 723.24$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.51 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6c…428ebacked NE | 45c | 559.79$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed SEA | 55c | 421.43$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.64 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771b…d522backed NE | 45c | 334.61$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d8…7a55backed SEA | 60c | 333.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed SEA | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed NE | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.99 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…9838backed NE | 45c | 287$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.15 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…35dcbacked NE | 41c | 259.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…66b0backed NE | 43c | 232.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b89…fafcbacked NE | 44c | 230.82$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.56 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0e…407abacked NE | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f9…84e6backed NE | 35c | 199.96$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked NE | 30c | 175$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.08 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b34…ffc3backed NE | 36c | 155.6$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd529…3edcbacked NE | 44c | 148.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f70…d145backed NE | 50c | 147.33$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd73…3cc4backed SEA | 59c | 135.59$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.59 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5553…6d2ebacked SEA | 57c | 130$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +74%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…7b4cbacked SEA | 60c | 110.71$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.2 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21e2…63f5backed SEA | 57c | 89.97$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.69 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7034…bcf8backed NE | 45c | 89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.05 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbdc…5d81backed SEA | 60c | 85.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7937…015cbacked NE | 43c | 75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.19per pick | 27cpaid | -83.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7fd…93c0backed SEA | 61c | 73.24$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd20…f08fbacked NE | 44c | 68.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -64%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e5…e660backed SEA | 65c | 66.75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f09…380ebacked SEA | 61c | 65.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d0…6070backed SEA | 56c | 54.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…9f6cbacked SEA | 55c | 49.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.49 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9a…3dbebacked NE | 43c | 46.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x699a…5421backed NE | 44c | 45.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeee…88cabacked NE | 45c | 44.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…c07dbacked NE | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…2398backed NE | 41c | 44.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2393…37fabacked NE | 46c | 43.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeff…fac0backed NE | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf8…d384backed SEA | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de7…73a5backed SEA | 61c | 41.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed SEA | 60c | 41.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…8ea2backed NE | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc232…1c97backed NE | 45c | 34.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked NE | 31c | 34.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 144 | 4.9%7 W · 137 L | -10.8wins | -0.07per pick | 12cpaid | -71.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5637…de4fbacked NE | 44c | 34.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f2…7c7dbacked SEA | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb245…5ed6backed SEA | 61c | 32.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed NE | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 107 | 31.8%34 W · 73 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -44%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5e…3871backed SEA | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc379…b246backed SEA | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +28%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…2ce9backed NE | 39c | 29.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed NE | 50c | 29.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfc…285abacked NE | 43c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa102…541ebacked SEA | 63c | 28.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2f…7e70backed SEA | 59c | 26.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff6f…2705backed SEA | 57c | 26.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d01…b284backed NE | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2142…e744backed NE | 45c | 24.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +91.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b08…7f91backed SEA | 58c | 23.37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8aa…40a1backed SEA | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe049…b683backed SEA | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f1…1898backed SEA | 65c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.