Dota2 · resolved market
REKONIX to win 2-0?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbab05db36b990b7b137df81ae6c595542c8f30387b148d1fc1a3458fd156969
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,801
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6200…7d23backed No | 4c | 1,004$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked No | 24c | 771.02$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.66 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5954…7d41backed Yes | 26c | 553.25$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.51 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 76c | 550$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.62 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked No | 74c | 430.87$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.84 | 121 | 55.4%67 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +134.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 6c | 428.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 793 | 41.7%331 W · 462 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 12c | 414.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 173 | 30.1%52 W · 121 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Yes | 74c | 267.99$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 74c | 266.8$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.43 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 8c | 251.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 74c | 222$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.28 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa113…bb53backed Yes | 76c | 154.92$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.32 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed No | 25c | 136.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70f5…82b5backed Yes | 77c | 129.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2fc…b1b4backed Yes | 26c | 128.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.22 | 153 | 53.6%82 W · 71 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3296…c186backed Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.38 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 23c | 99.72$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 49 | 10.2%5 W · 44 L | -6.9wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…0f01backed Yes | 75c | 62.87$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +474.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa245…2152backed No | 75c | 53.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.09 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed Yes | 76c | 39.35$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 606 | 60.7%368 W · 238 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked No | 72c | 33.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15d1…ccfebacked Yes | 76c | 32.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 546 | 59.7%326 W · 220 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba06…8024backed Yes | 48c | 22.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 75c | 13.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.43 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- REKONIX to win 2-0?this page
- REKONIX vs Team Nemesis: Draw (1-1)?No won
- Team Nemesis to win 2-0?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.