Fifa International · resolved market
Will Japan be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbbc9344e3c0e33472d26ccb58192a7e67be1ad6024464e5511082e70d99b7532
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,150
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,523
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,150 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 3c | 3,534$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.61 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,573$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af9…d66dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ec…17b2backed Yes | 8c | 1,232$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f3…975cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,217$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.14 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b42…22abbacked Yes | 11c | 883.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac8…7079backed Yes | 12c | 844.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…41d2backed Yes | 12c | 844.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x264f…cd38backed Yes | 7c | 775.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 764.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 609 | 8.4%51 W · 558 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd914…0d9abacked Yes | 5c | 754.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 80 | 28.8%23 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeae…e314backed Yes | 9c | 558$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc9…525ebacked Yes | 4c | 505.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 116 | 11.2%13 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 4c | 448.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…78e0backed Yes | 7c | 442.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 215 | 17.2%37 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef5…c3c8backed Yes | 7c | 426.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 344.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 293 | 7.5%22 W · 271 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf558…683fbacked Yes | 7c | 338.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb789…18e7backed Yes | 9c | 330.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbc…26c6backed Yes | 3c | 311.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9b…02a1backed Yes | 9c | 299.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…62aebacked Yes | 5c | 279.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 279 | 40.5%113 W · 166 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 8c | 278.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff1b…b95cbacked Yes | 8c | 255.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7014…678bbacked Yes | 9c | 230$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2730…376ebacked Yes | 6c | 199.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08f9…ec7bbacked Yes | 10c | 197.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd35…eb6dbacked Yes | 10c | 152.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccf…2175backed Yes | 10c | 143.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Japan be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup?this page
- Will Japan be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will Japan be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?No won
- Will Japan be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?No won
- Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will Japan be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Yes won
- Will Japan win the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.